Slovakia Shooting and EP Elections: What Else Can Disrupt Democratic Security?

Slovakian PM Fico shot, Russian arson attacks and subversion warnings. With the European Parliamentary elections only weeks away, various themes have come to the fore in CEE which look set to dominate the EU’s strategic agenda for the next four years.

These include the need to prioritise democratic security (see the “foreign influence” bill in Georgia), so-called “polarisation” (see post-Fico shooting tensions in the V4) and positive steps towards enlargement, or at least closer defence ties with NATO and the EU (see Ukraine and Moldova).

Upcoming on Visegrad Insight:

• Márta Pardavi writes about how the EU Commission’s Article 7 procedure against Hungary is very much alive, and how the procedure can be made more effective.
• Alina Inayeh analyses which portfolios in the European Commission will be most sought after by CEE, as well as who in the region can be potential commissioners or heads of Directorates-General.
• Zsuzsanna Szabó asks if Budapest will change course in light of Poland’s Baltic Pipe and Croatia’s LNG terminal expansions, offering opportunities for Hungary to diversify its energy imports.
• Friday 24 May DEBATE, Brussels: Navigating Informed Choices in the 2024 EP Elections – CEE Perspectives. Click here for more information and to register

Calls for democratic security to be prioritised in next European Commission

• Former EU leaders, Nobel laureates and pro-democracy institutions called on the next European Commission to do more to defend democracy in an increasingly authoritarian world, according to an open letter published on 16 May.
• They want the EC to more robustly defend the rule of law in the EU, to ensure that new technologies safeguard human rights and to put democracy at the heart of security, migration, energy and trade policies.
• The need for democratic security was on display again in Eastern Europe as the Georgia Dream party finally passed a bill targeting foreign-funded NGOs.
• Unsurprisingly, the move was met with further condemnation from the West. From the V4, Poland’s FM Radosław Sikorski lamented the fact that Georgia is moving on an “Eastern trajectory”, while his Czech counterpart Jan Lipavský reiterated that the Russian-style law will damage Georgia’s democracy and rule of law.
• Josep Borrell also released a statement with the European Commission stating that threats against Georgia’s civil society, politicians and journalists are “unacceptable” and that the bill “negatively impacts Georgia’s progress on the EU path.”
• Yet there was much dismay as the statement was repeatedly delayed following opposition from Slovak and Hungarian diplomats.

• Foreign ministers from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were all in Tbilisi for talks with Georgian Dream and local civil society groups.
• While the EU struggled to put out an official statement, the Baltics helped save face and showed the thousands of protesting Georgians that at least some of Europe was hearing them.
• Lithuanian FM Gabrielius Landsbergis wrote extensively on X about the “battle for democracy, freedom and European future” ongoing in Georgia.

• President Salomé Zourabichvili stated that “the European way” forward is to reverse the ruling government’s actions in the upcoming elections, highlighting that the many thousands of Georgians who have continued to conduct peaceful protests will have the chance to come out again in full force during October’s vote.
• Zourabichvili also spoke with President Maia Sandu and expressed gratitude for Moldova’s support for the Georgian people, emphasising that “Our joint future belongs to Europe!” – more on Moldova’s increasingly close ties with the EU later.

• Putin travelled to Beijing on 16 May for the first foreign trip of his new term.
• The visit was filled with symbolic gestures and renewed symbolism of China and Russia’s “everlasting” friendship, with Xi Jinping saying it had “become a model for a new type of international relations.”
• These international relations have manifested themselves in Europe through increasing instances of violent sabotage executed by Kremlin agents.
• There have been multiple large-scale arson attacks in recent weeks, including a fire at a shopping centre in Vilnius and a huge fire in a Warsaw shopping mall, leading Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre to call on businesses supporting Ukraine to increase vigilance and improve their fire safety measures.
• Such attacks have occurred in tandem with intensified disinformation campaigns pushing Russian and Chinese narratives ahead of the EP elections – for more on such hybrid attacks read this previous outlook.

Kyiv strengthens ties with NATO as Russian offensive intensifies 

UKRAINE