Eastern Partnership #Futures
Eastern Partnership may be described today as one of the most successful programs of the EU. Yet, having demonstrated a transformative power of the EU on its neighbourhood, it has revealed many of the strategic deficiencies of own approach.
The Eastern Partnership (EaP) is a joint policy framework of the European Union and six Eastern neighbours. Since its launch in 2009, it has unfolded considerable domestic and international impact, although not evenly across the region. Throughout this period, the participating states have undergone political, economic and social changes that redefined their relationship with the rest of Europe.
What is more, they must contend with competitive, divergent interests from both global and regional powers. To their East, Russia undermines the security of the region. The stabilising role, whether of the United States or the United Kingdom, has been thrown into question recently while new powers, such as China, are seeking a stronger foothold in Eastern Europe.
The EaP countries are exposed to unprecedented level of uncertainty because of global trends, such as: the future of liberal world order, multilateralism, the future of EU and NATO, economic cycle, geopolitical tectonic shifts, regional demographics, energy ties, digitalization and disinformation.
These are just a few of the factors that influence long-term trends and that drive political and social change. All these are a shared concern across Europe and Central European and Eastern Partnership Countries, and all require directions to what the future may bring.
In this situation, the EU takes the ten-year anniversary of the EaP to review this initiative. In 2020, then, the European Commission is to announce its revised policy for the region, a daunting task given that Eastern neighbours are more differentiated and multifaceted than ever.
Thus, in collaboration with the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), we decided to map out scenarios for EaP 2030. Following our #Futures theme, with the prime example of the Central European Futures launched in November 2018, we are developing this project with several key regional partners:
- Czech Association for International Affairs (AMO),
- Hungarian Centre for Euro-Atlantic Integration and Democracy (CEID),
- Slovak Foreign Policy Association (SFPA),
- Ukrainian PRISM
- Belarusian House Warsaw.
The project is supported by the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the International Visegrad Fund. The scenarios will serve building public debate on strategy for countries, mapping out consequences of strategic directions, and creating public responsiveness to policy directions in the democratic process as an element of good governance.
We will develop plausible scenarios for EaP focusing on different political trajectories, economical or social factors. This exercise will consist of a series of workshops that will bring together a group of regional leaders, experts and innovators from politics, think tanks, academia, business, media and civil society. Jointly, these will work to identify possible paths that the EaP countries might take in the coming decade.
The results of these workshops will inform a scenario report that is to fuel public debate and to shape EU strategies for the EaP.
In anticipation of the final report, please find all details about a thematic report here on major Eastern Partnership trends that will shape the EU’s framework policy with the eastern neighbours in the next decade. This thematic report was presented in Kyiv and Minsk in November and the subject of a V/I breakfast meeting in Warsaw in December 2019.
Let’s talk about #EaP2030!
IN COLLABORATION WITH: