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Warsaw’s Friends With Defence Benefits
11 May 2026
Donald Trump offered little pushback to Xi Jinping in his welcoming speech last weekend. The Chinese leader expressed hope that China and the United States would get along well with each other in the ‘new era’, dismissing concerns over the Thucydides Trap, a theory proposed by political scientist Graham Allison, that predicted an aggressive confrontation against a rising Chinese power by the US. In turn, Trump called the US arms sales to Taiwan a ‘bargaining chip’. Xi is now set to host Vladimir Putin in Beijing today.
The danger for small and middle powers is clear. Avoiding deadly confrontation is, of course, a good thing, but the terms on which the reshuffled world order is being negotiated send shivers down the spines of Taiwan and Central and Eastern Europe.
At about the same time as Trump cancelled the planned deployment of troops to Poland, a new law allowing Putin to pursue foreign military interventions in countries that charge Russians in their courts has been approved by the Russian parliament.
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