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History Threatens Strategy. New Poland-Ukraine Rift
1 June 2026
CEE states favour Europe’s overdue pushback against China’s predatory industrial policy. Expect China’s response.
Decisive momentum is building up ahead of the EU Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) next week. A joint letter from France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Lithuania pressing for robust EU trade instruments signals a political coalition necessary for action ahead of FAC, where the European Commission’s proposed protective measures – including sector-specific tariffs – are expected to define the agenda. The new Chinese maritime patrol operations and escalating narrative against Taiwan are only more likely to add to that momentum.
A strategic mindset in Poland, Lithuania, or Czechia – CEE countries hardened by the threat of Russian revisionist imperialism – recognises Beijing’s subsidies, overcapacity exports and ‘industrial policy of everything’ not merely as mercantile strategies but as means of eroding Europe’s manufacturing capacity.
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