One Step For EU, One Giant Leap for Ukraine and Moldova

Democratic and Economic Security Outlook 2026: 15-21 June

15 June 2026

Europe enters the week with the first real movement on enlargement in years, a budget under construction and a G7 summit at Évian that will test whether the West can still speak with one voice.

Most importantly, the EU has opened the first rule of law cluster of accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova and Accession Conferences with Ukraine, with Moldova and the 27th one with Montenegro will be held in Luxembourg today alongside the Foreign Affairs Council (FAC).

No less important, the EU is about to decide how bullyish it can get against China and agree on future budget consolidation. On 18-19 June the Council is expected to decide on tackling global ‘macroeconomic imbalances’ (read: China’s overcapacity) and further progress on the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). Chancellor Friedrich Merz signalled last week to protect its interests and economy against ‘trade practices by other countries that distort competition’ but critics warn that the devil is in the details and Berlin may leave loopholes allowing business as usual despite official narrative. Robin J. Brooks from Brookings often reminds us how transshipments from Germany or Italy through Kyrgyzstan circumvent official EU sanction policy on Russia.

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