House Divided for the Polish Right – Trouble for Tusk, Blessing for CEE’s Security

Poland’s Law and Justice party lost over 30 of its MPs ahead of make-or-break elections next year. Yet, talks of conservative defeat would be premature. Will security tip the balance?

While Poland’s former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has left Jarosław Kaczyński’s Law and Justice party together with around 30 MPs, figures across the fractured right have publicly regretted the division. Yet they have been quick to underline that their common adversary remains Donald Tusk. This shared focus on defeating the current ruling coalition suggests that, even if the right enters the next campaign under separate banners, its voters and leaders could still unite around the overriding goal of removing the Civic Coalition from power, leaving Tusk struggling to build a broader alliance capable of outnumbering a reunited or parallel conservative bloc ahead of the autumn 2027 elections.

As Poland enters a premature but already fierce election campaign, political gains of both the government and the president will depend heavily on relations with the United States and Donald Trump’s favour. Specifically, securing permanent US troops, equipment and defence investments is set to play a decisive role in the political contest and voters’ appeal. Regional security will embrace the windfall.