Warsaw’s Friends With Defence Benefits

Democratic and Economic Security Outlook 2026: 11-17 May

11 May 2026

Defence efforts in NATO’s eastern flank are in the focus of this week’s political agenda. Despite Zelenskyy’s deft political trolling of Putin’s favourite propaganda parade on the 9 May, bombs, missiles and drones are the danger from above again.

The political fallout is also tangible. Latvia’s defence minister Andris Sprūds was caught up in the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone strike over the weekend. Even so, the region’s defence build-up continues. In Bucharest, delegations from nine CEE countries are coordinating their defence posture ahead of NATO Ankara’s summit and the first multibillion-dollar deals for SAFE funds begin to be signed, aimed largely at boosting investment across the region.

Then Trump has signalled openness to reallocating a brigade-sized US contingent from Germany to Poland. President Nawrocki is already in pole position to say Poland would benefit from his personal ties to Trump, while PM Tusk is more cautious, warning against straining relations with Berlin just weeks before a bilateral defence treaty is due to be signed. Poland might be playing on two pianos – to its material advantage.

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