Ukraine and Moldova Accession Talks Begin: Planning For An Enlarged Europe

This is shaping up to be a big week for planning the European Union’s next term. EU ministers have finally agreed that Ukraine and Moldova accession talks will begin on 25 June, and Montenegro’s accession conference will also take place on 26 June. The EUCO summit from 27-28 June will then focus on EU treaty amendments and the integration of these new countries, in addition to discussions on who should take the next term’s top jobs.

Upcoming on Visegrad Insight:

• Albin Sybera analyses the challenges in decoupling state and private business in Central Europe through the example of a large Czech investment conglomerate, PPF.
• Lorenzo Asquini looks into the difficulties facing Moldova in its search for EU membership.
• Vilmos Babel looks ahead to see what policies we might expect from the Hungarian government in its upcoming takeover of the presidency of the Council of the EU on 1 July.

Strategic agenda comes to the fore and EU job hunt reaches climax 

EU/regional

• EU ministers discussed how best to ensure that the EU’s cohesion policy will contribute to the strategic agenda for 2024-2029 at the General Affairs Council on 18 June, building on the Commission’s ninth Cohesion Report from March.
• Importantly for the next strategic agenda, ministers also officially confirmed that accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova will begin on 25 June, after weeks of Budapest-delayed negotiations.
• Moldova’s biggest champion in the EP, Romanian EPP lawmaker Siegfried Mureșan, criticised the job done by Hungary’s Olivér Várhelyi and said that “Hungary should not continue to significantly influence the EU enlargement policy” in the next Union – but more on Budapest’s upcoming EU Presidency in the Hungary section.

• EU leaders failed to reach a preliminary deal on the bloc’s top jobs which would have kept Ursula von der Leyen as Commission chief and made former Portuguese PM António Costa and Estonian PM Kaja Kallas Council president and the EU’s top diplomat respectively.
• Italian PM Georgia Meloni was reportedly angered that centrist and liberal leaders started discussions from pre-formed plans rather than looking for voter preferences.
• Viktor Orbán echoed the complaint, declaring that “they don’t care about reality, they don’t care about the results of the European elections, and they don’t care about the will of the European people.”
• The EPP also seemed to add fuel to the fire by suggesting that the Council Presidency, which usually consists of two 2.5-year terms, should be split up – a move which would give the EPP more time at the top and was therefore interpreted as a sign of the group’s greediness.
• Nonetheless, Ursula von der Leyen is still the clear front-runner to get the green light from EU leaders for a second term at next week’s EUCO summit.

• With top jobs still to be assigned, Europe’s far-right players continued to explore new groupings.
• The Polish Law and Justice party and Hungary’s Fidesz party have reportedly been pitching the idea of merging the ECR and far-right ID groups, creating a new confederation in which each side would remain technically separate and therefore wouldn’t have to agree on topics like Ukraine and Russia.
• This comes as many populist CEE MEPs remain without a home in the EP, including Andrej Babiš’s ANO MEPs (more on them later), Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz MEPs (non-attached), Slovenian ex-PM Janez Janša’s MEPs (EPP) and the MEPs from Slovakia’s Smer party (non-attached).
• An alliance between Meloni and Le Pen would reshape the Brussels landscape, but Orbán has bemoaned the far-right’s lack of unity: “We used to dream about this, and then we wake up and it turns out that the two ladies cannot come to an agreement.”

• Dutch PM Mark Rutte is on the verge of becoming NATO’s next chief after securing the endorsement of Hungary, Slovakia and Romania.
• Rutte reportedly promised Orbán that Hungary could opt out of NATO activities in support of Ukraine during his tenure if the latter lifted the opposition to his candidacy. Orbán had adamantly blocked Rutte’s application because of previous arguments about LGBTIQ+ rights and rule-of-law troubles.
• During his visit to the US, incumbent NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg unveiled new defence expenditure figures across the Alliance, including the biggest increase in defence spending across European Allies and Canada for decades – up 18% this year.
• He also announced that a record 23 allies will dedicate at least 2% of GDP to defence in 2024. Poland tops the chart at 4.12%, followed by Estonia (3.43%), the US (3.38%), Latvia (3.15%) and Greece (3.08%).

• The EU approved a new package of sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which will now target Moscow’s shadow fleet of tankers as well as transshipments of liquefied natural gas.
• The Council also decided to renew sanctions introduced by the EU in response to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.
• Meanwhile, Beijing announced its first trade retaliation after the EU’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, launching an anti-dumping probe against EU pork and by-products – for a breakdown of the EU’s duties on Chinese EV imports, read this.
• The EU is reportedly rethinking its response to the trade threat from Beijing and is now hoping to use the additional tariffs of up to 38% on EVs as an incentive for Chinese carmakers to form joint ventures and share technology with EU counterparts – according to Politico.

Putin looks to North Korea as Ukraine begins EU accession talks

UKRAINE

• Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-Un signed a defence pact last week, during the Russian President’s first trip to North Korea in 24 years, including a clause which requires the countries to come to each other’s aid if either is attacked.
• The North Korean leader called the deal the “strongest ever treaty” signed between the two countries, elevating their relationship to the “higher level of an alliance” and “accelerating the creation of a new multipolar world.”
• South Korean DM Shin Wonsik reported that South Korea has identified at least 10,000 shipping containers suspected of containing artillery ammunition and other weapons sent from North Korea to Russia.
• US intelligence officials, in turn, believe that Putin is providing North Korea with nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology, in exchange for arms for his war in Ukraine – and of course a shiny, new Russian limousine.

• The EU Council formally approved the start of accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, with intergovernmental conferences set to begin on 25 June.
• President Zelenskyy in turn approved his delegation for said negotiations, to be led by Vice PM for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olga Stefanishyna.

• A Ukrainian drone attack blew up oil storage tanks near Azov, Rostov, causing powerful fires. The Security Service of Ukraine stated that such “drone sanctions” will continue with the aim of further reducing Russia’s economic potential for war.
• At the same time, Moscow continued to launch overnight drone attacks targeting Ukraine’s energy facilities. National grid operator Ukrenergo suffered from rolling electricity blackouts throughout 19 June following Russian strikes.

• The US has informed Ukraine that it can use American-supplied weapons to strike any Russian forces crossing into Ukraine to seize territory.
• This builds on a previous US decision allowing Kyiv to respond to cross-border assaults in the Kharkiv region specifically.

• The majority of Ukrainians still rule out making compromises in negotiations with Russia, but the share has decreased to 58% from 80% in May 2022 – according to a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
• Ukraine’s Presidential Office aims to hold a second peace summit by the end of the year and is reportedly open to Russia’s participation, but the timing will likely be influenced by the US presidential elections.
• Read this for the key takeaways from Ukraine’s first Peace Summit.

• The initial formal negotiations between Kyiv and its creditors to restructure over $20 billion in international bonds concluded without an agreement.
• Creditors resisted Ukraine’s proposal for debt relief, which seeks greater losses for debt holders to enable Ukraine to finance its defence against Russia and allocate resources for post-war reconstruction.

Hungary announces MEGA start to its EU presidency

CZECH REPUBLIC