Shaping the Next European Parliament: Second Coming of the Far-right?

Following the rush of the European Parliamentary elections on 9 June, the long process of finalising Europe’s parties has officially begun. Bargaining for places and top jobs is in full swing, and an informal meeting of leaders will take place on 17 June.

Eurosceptics from CEE and the rest of the continent, however, are struggling to come together. Will Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party join the ECR or the ID? Will Andrej Babiš’s ANO party stay in Renew? It remains to be seen how far-right parties will shape the EP’s alignment for the next term.

Upcoming on Visegrad Insight:

• Alina Inayeh analyses the outcomes of the Ukrainian Peace Summit vis-a-vis Western support for reconstruction and using interest earned from frozen Russian sovereign assets as collateral for loans.
• Philipp Fritz gives the state of play for the Weimar Triangle, and where the W3 could expand their influence in EU policymaking.
• Albin Sybera looks into the quagmire of decoupling state and private business in Central Europe with the Czech PPF Group.
• Oleksandr Kostryba breaks down how Ukrainian know-how can bridge the gaps in the EU’s defence capabilities.

Far-right parties look to maximise their standing in next European Parliament 

EU/regional

• Far-right leaders including France’s Marine Le Pen, Italy’s Matteo Salvini and the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders met privately in Brussels on 12 June to discuss expanding their influence on the EU stage – Politico reported.
• A central topic of debate was finding a “new group” for Viktor Orbán, who has been searching for a home for his MEPs ever since his Fidesz party was booted out of the European People’s Party (EPP).
• One solution would be to “Pressure [the] ECR.” Accepting 11 Fidesz MEPs would give the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) the numerical edge over the Renew party and Orbán has been vocal about his desire to join, but ECR members from Sweden, Finland and elsewhere have threatened to leave should that happen.
• Two ECR sources reportedly said a “confederation” akin to how the Greens and European Free Alliance sit together could be on the cards and was discussed in the aforementioned private meetings.
• The meeting also brought together politicians aligned with the Identity & Democracy (ID) group from the Czech Republic, Austria, Denmark, Portugal and Flanders, raising suspicions that Fidesz could instead be set to find a new home in the ID.

• A Czech-led initiative has pushed to revoke freedom-of-movement rights for Russian diplomats in EU countries as part of the next sanctions package against Moscow, which is set to be discussed on 19 June.
• The Czech Republic, backed by Poland, Romania, the Baltics, Denmark and the Netherlands, has faced a rise in sabotage operations conducted by Russian agents – more on this later – and a letter sent to Josep Borrell argues that “This measure will significantly narrow operational space for Russian agents.”
• Germany, Austria, France and Italy are said to be sceptical, however. Germany also blocked a new round of sanctions before Ukraine’s Peace Summit due to concerns about the so-called No Russia clause, which refers to requirements that would be put on EU exporters to block customers in third countries from reexporting to Russia.
• Germany has made a habit of being extremely cautious in its approach to malign foreign powers, as evidenced by its concerns regarding the EU’s decision to impose additional tariffs as high as 38.1% on EVs shipped from China.

G7 strike deal to provide $50 billion for Ukraine using frozen Russian assets

UKRAINE