Once More Unto the Polls, Dear Friends

November 2021 Monthly Foresight

2 November 2021

Bulgarians will have yet another chance to change the course of the country in elections held mid-November while Belarus and Russia are set to integrate further later in the week. The weather has yet to turn cold, but energy is already playing a key role in both the economy and politics of the region with gas flows from Russia greatly reduced. 

Main takeaways for November:

  • Bulgarians will head to the polls again this month in the third contest in less than a year. Unfortunately, the possibility of a political stalemate remains.
  • Warsaw appears to be bowing to EU pressure regarding the controversial changes to the judiciary which run afoul rule of law standards. At the same time, the European Parliament has filed a lawsuit against the EU Commission over the failure to invoke the conditionality mechanism that freezes access to EU funds for rule of law violations.
  • European gas supply is being threatened by Russia regardless of statements to the contrary from Vladimir Putin. 
  • 31 October — 12 November: UN climate change conference (COP 26) hosted in Glasgow, UK, bringing 197 parties to the table, including heads of state from the CEE. The President of the Republic of Korea (South Korea) is planning a visit to the V4 Countries after COP26.
  • 3 November: Congressional Committee on Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Helsinki Committee, is having a hearing on democratic backsliding in Hungary and Poland.
  • 4 November: Russian President Vladimir Putin due to sign integration agreements with Belarus.  
  • The fifth package of EU sanctions is expected to come into force in mid-November against Belarus.
  • The latest figures show that the eurozone is experiencing the highest level of inflation since the Great Recession at 4.1 per cent, largely driven by a persistent energy crunch. The Commission expects energy costs to remain high until springtime.

Intractable Electorate

It has been a turbulent year across the region, but nowhere more so than in Bulgaria, which has been caught in a political quagmire. In April, former-PM Borisov was forced to step down after nearly twelve years in office (albeit not continuously). His party GERB had an upset loss after massive public anti-corruption protests led to a boost for new parties and those in the opposition. However, no coalition was feasible as the diverse landscape in Sofia led to a technocratic government that enacted changes to the election law many saw as unfairly benefitting Borisov’s party. Even after these procedural changes were enacted, a similar electoral situation repeated itself in July, suggesting that the supporters for the parties are more recalcitrant than initially thought.

Now, with Bulgaria’s third attempt at voting for a new government just days away (14 November), GERB is still the leading party (by a large margin) in recent polls due to a new, centrist party ‘We Continue the Change’, which has syphoned off votes from the previous election winner ‘There Is Such a People’.

Subscribe

Democratic security comes at a price. What is yours? By subscribing or donating now gain access to analysis, forecasts and scenarios by leading analysts and reporters who monitor democratic risks and develop policy debate from Central Europe on Central Europe.

IndividualVAT included

€4/month €40/year

See all details

  • Access to all articles
  • Download all reports
  • Monthly foresights and risk analysis delivered by e-mail
  • Free invitation to one editorial board discussion to participate in deciding on the future direction of the Visegrad Insight (annual subscription only)
  • Weekly newsletter with most important highlights
  • Free delivery of two select hardcopies of Visegrad Insight reports (annual subscription only)
  • Free Visegrad Insight Podcast access
  • Visegrad Insight social media community groups invitation

CorporateVAT included

€99/month €999/year

See all details

  • Access to all articles for all team members (up to 10 users)
  • Download all reports
  • Monthly foresights and risk analysis delivered by e-mail
  • Once a year an on-demand tailored policy brief report (annual subscription only)
  • Personal invitations to Visegrad Insight Breakfasts with an exclusive group of diplomats, decision-makers, think-tankers and foreign correspondents in the region
  • Free invitation to one editorial board discussion to participate in deciding on the future direction of the Visegrad Insight (annual subscription only)
  • Weekly newsletter with most important highlights PLUS a first-month mention in the newsletter (annual subscription only)
  • Free delivery of up to 20 select hardcopies of Visegrad Insight reports
  • Free Visegrad Insight Podcast access PLUS a mention in four episodes (annual subscription only)
  • Visegrad Insight social media community groups invitations to all corporate users (annual subscription only)

Optional donation

Choose your contribution

See all details

  • Access to all articles
  • Download all reports
  • For every donation above 10 euros monthly foresights and risk analysis delivered by e-mail
  • One on demand tailored policy brief report for every donation above 600 euros
  • Invitations to select special events organised by Visegrad Insight for every donation above 99 euros
  • Free invitation to one editorial board discussion to participate in deciding on the future direction of the Visegrad Insight (annual subscription only with a minimum value of 1 euro per month)
  • Weekly newsletter with the most important highlights PLUS a mention in the newsletter for every donation above 25 euros
  • Delivery of a select report for a donation above 30 euros
  • Free Visegrad Insight Podcast access PLUS a podcast mention for every donation above 25 euros
  • Visegrad Insight social media community groups invitation

Can I receive an invoice?

Yes. You will receive a receipt immediately after purchase and a VAT invoice upon request. The subscription amount includes tax. In case of a donation, there is no tax.

Are my credit card details safe?

Yes. The payment is processed by STRIPE www.stripe.com entrusted also by Amazon, Zoom, Booking.com and used by other global NGOs and businesses in the world. We do not store your credit card details.

How modify or cancel my subscription?

At any moment you can manage your subscription and account details. Sign in to modify or cancel.

Visegrad Insight Futures

In-house programme dedicated to analysing impactful trends, mapping out potential scenarios and generating weekly and monthly foresights.

Newsletter

Weekly updates with our latest articles and the editorial commentary.