NATO Foreign Ministers To Meet In Prague After Weimar Triangle Defence Talks

Democratic Security Outlook 2024: 27 May - 2 June

27 May 2024

Weimar Triangle takes the lead on defence and democratic security 

EU/regional 

  • 80% of EU citizens want cooperation in defence matters to be increased at the EU level –  according to the latest Eurobarometer survey.
  • In the face of Russia’s war against Ukraine, 72% of EU citizens also support economic sanctions on the Russian government, companies and individuals, while 70% agree with sending financial support to Ukraine.
  • Such results reinforce the EU’s leaked Strategic Agenda, which says that there is “an overwhelming consensus on the aim to take greater responsibility for our security and defence” among the EU27. For more on the strategic agenda, read here.
  • The W3 called on the EU to secure its defences against foreign interference before the EP elections during the General Affairs Council on 21 May.
  • Their proposals included a new “European media platform” to counter disinformation, a boost to comms about EU benefits, more media literacy funding and new structured exchanges between EU governments on countering influence campaigns. Read more about these recommendations from our related report
  • The Council also approved the guiding framework for the practical establishment of the EU Hybrid Rapid Response Teams.
  • Poland, France, Germany and 13 other countries then signed a joint statement on democratic resilience on 22 May, further outlining some of the steps that can be taken to safeguard electoral processes and democratic security.
  • The W3 Foreign Ministers also met to discuss security and Ukraine in Weimar, Germany, on 22 May.
  • Radosław Sikorski, Stéphane Séjourné and Annalena Baerbock released a joint statement explaining why and how the EU must become a “geopolitical actor and security provider.”
  • For more about how CEE can drive a geopolitical EU, and why Sikorski is being touted as a new defence commissioner, read here.
  • The Venice Commission called on Georgia’s government not to pass its “anti-democratic” foreign influence bill. 
  • This comes as several EU countries and the US push for sanctions against Georgia in case it goes ahead with its plans. US lawmakers are reportedly considering imposing financial restrictions and visa bans directly on Georgian Dream lawmakers.
  • At the same time, the US is also preparing a sweeping package of economic and security support for Georgia’s government, should it abandon its anti-Western rhetoric and attempts at state capture.
  • Russia and China both sought to retaliate against EU financial manoeuvres.
  • In response to EU plans to make use of Russian frozen assets, a Russian court has frozen the local assets of Germany’s Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG, as well as Italy’s UniCredit SpA, under lawsuits totalling over €1 billion filed by a Gazprom PJSC venture.
  • In response to the EU’s investigations – with an upcoming deadline on whether or not to impose tariffs on 5 June – China threatened to unleash tariffs as high as 25% on imported cars with large engines. China’s BYD also announced plans to introduce electric vehicles that cost less than $10,000 in Europe next year.
  • British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said that London has evidence that China is sending “lethal aid” to Russia for use in Ukraine – on top of the increasing trade between the pair, which has gone up by 64% since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • Shapps called for NATO to “wake up” and lay the foundations for a coordinated and alliance-wide increase in spending.

Ukraine and Moldova accession talks to begin as soon as 25 June 

UKRAINE

  • The EU is aiming to start formal accession talks for Ukraine and Moldova at the European Council summit on 25 June.
  • To formally begin negotiations, however, EU member states will have to sign off on a negotiating framework which was proposed by the EC back in March.
  • This is why Kyiv has reportedly been engaged in intensive bilateral discussions with Budapest, laying out an 11-point document which proposes remedies for all the concerns Hungary has raised about enlargement. Kyiv is now awaiting a response.
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on the US to lift its ban on Kyiv using American-supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia and criticised the West for taking too long to make crucial decisions about military support.
  • Zelenskyy will attend the G7 leaders’ meeting in June with both sentiments in mind, as he pushes for longer-range weapons for strikes beyond Ukraine’s borders.
  • Jens Stoltenberg echoed these calls in an interview with the Economist, saying that “Especially now when a lot of the fighting is going on in Kharkiv, close to the border, to deny Ukraine the possibility of using these weapons against legitimate military targets on Russian territory makes it very hard for them to defend themselves.”
  • The Secretary-General also reserved some criticism for NATO’s European members, adding that “We haven’t seen anything close” to the one million artillery shells that had been promised to Ukraine.
  • Going back on their previous decision, German officials have now backed a US plan to leverage future revenue generated by frozen Russian assets to support $50 billion in aid to Ukraine.
  • Vladimir Putin has said he is ready to halt the war in Ukraine, so long as negotiations are based on “the realities on the ground” and “Not on the basis of what one side wants”.
  • Ukrainian FM Dmytro Kuleba was quick to dismiss these “phony signals,” saying the Kremlin is trying to derail Ukraine’s peace summit in Switzerland next month.
  • Russia has planned to host a meeting of BRICS countries at the same time as the peace conference and has invited all relevant FMs, suggesting China’s Wang Yi won’t be in attendance in Switzerland.
  • Putin has also questioned Zelenskyy’s office, using the passing of the 20 May – the date when Zelenskyy’s term would have ended had martial law not been enforced – to claim that “the legitimacy of the current head of state has ended.”
  • It is a bold claim given the EU has only just denounced Putin’s own “presidency” after his recent sham elections.
  • Czechia’s FM Jan Lipavský also highlighted that Russian actions on the battlefield prove that Putin is not interested in peace after a Russian strike destroyed the Epicentr hypermarket used by civilians in Kharkiv just one day after Putin’s claims.
  • Former Deputy EM Oleg Savelyev has been appointed as the new Deputy DM, mirroring the earlier replacement of Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov and furthering Western suspicions that the Kremlin is putting Russia on a permanent war footing.

Hungary sparks Article 7 debate

CZECH REPUBLIC

  • Several EU leaders, including Andrzej Duda, Mark Rutte and Mette Frederiksen, will gather in Prague on 28 May to discuss munition aid for Ukraine and cooperation in the defence industry
  • Brno Pride Week culminated with a march through the countrys second-largest city. It was the first pride march since 2008 and 2010 when marches were disrupted by extremists and opponents of sexual minority rights.
  • Captain of AC Sparta Prague football side, Ladislav Krejčí, signed a jersey bearing the anti-semitic chant Jude Slavie and the number 88, which is often used in neo-nazi circles as a code for the banned “Heil Hitler!” salute.
  • Amid a wave of criticism, Krejčí was backed by Sparta management, which argued the footballer acted amid the “euphoria” of Sparta’s successful title defence.
  • Czech football clubs have been repeatedly penalised by European football bodies for inaction over prevalent racism among their ultra-fan bases.
  • The number of Czechs receiving salaries in euro currency is set to increase after the passing of a legislative proposal enabling any employee with connections abroad to receive a salary in euros.
  • Insolvency legislation was also amended by the Chamber of Deputies, with the country yet to implement insolvency legislation reflective of EU directive standards.

HUNGARY

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