Indian PM Modi Visits Warsaw and Kyiv Amid Europe’s Internal Strengthening Efforts

This week, Indian PM Narendra Modi will visit Poland on 21 August – the first Indian Prime Minister to do so in 45 years – and Ukraine on 23 August.

Upcoming on Visegrad Insight:

• Edit Zgut-Przybylska analyses Poland’s anti-corruption tactics under PiS and their lessons for Hungary.
• Valeriia Novak asks whether Ukraine wants China to broker a peace deal.
• Albin Sybera discusses the current culture war in Slovakia.
• Tomasz Kasprowicz explores how media fear-mongering has intensified in the face of recent global crises.
• Wojciech Pryzbylski on Nord Stream II tensions.

Nord Stream accusations play into Moscow’s strategic narratives

GLOBAL/Regional

• Various reports that Ukraine was responsible for blowing up Nord Stream gas pipelines in late 2022 have fueled the story Russia always wanted to spread.
• On August 12, the Wall Street Journal reported that Volodymyr Zelenskyy initially approved a plan to sabotage the pipelines but unsuccessfully attempted to call it off at the CIA’s request.
• Additionally, German authorities have issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian man, identified only as Volodymyr Z., suspected of being part of the operation. According to German reports, Berlin first requested Warsaw to arrest the suspect in June 2024, but he managed to cross the Polish-Ukrainian border in early July.
• Despite these allegations, Zelenskyy and several senior Ukrainian officials have consistently denied any involvement, and German intelligence is reportedly considering the possibility of a ‘false flag operation’ designed to obscure Russia’s role.
• This theory has received much support in Poland, including from Donald Tusk and several Presidential officers. Initial reports are seen as playing into strategic narratives against Poland and Ukraine while covering up the Kremlin’s covert operation to corrupt Germany and prepare the ground for war against Ukraine.
• Berlin has certainly drawn renewed public criticism in Poland for failing to cut its dependence on Russian gas and putting its own security and energy partners in a difficult position – but find out more in this TVP WORLD interview with Wojciech Przybylski.

• Brussels accused Thierry Breton of going rogue by sending a letter to Elon Musk, threatening punishment if content posted on X was found to place EU citizens at risk of ‘serious harm’ – as part of the EC’s ongoing investigation.
• The letter was posted just before Musk held a glitch-delayed conversation on X with Donald Trump, in which the former alluded to the EU’s attempts to ‘force censorship,’ while the latter condemned the US trade deficit with the EU, praised Volodymyr Zelenskyy and claimed he warned Vladimir Putin against attacking Ukraine.

• As the US Democratic Convention begins, Lithuanian FM Gabrielius has echoed other CEE diplomats in calling for greater European security no matter who wins the US Presidency.  
• Landsbergis wrote in an interview with Politico last week that the transatlantic bond ‘will remain the most powerful and lasting bond,’ but highlighted that Europe must ‘realise that America is and will be focused on [the] Indo-Pacific.’
• This change in strategic direction was also described by Polish FM Radosław Sikorski – including in our exclusive interview.
• Landsbergis also ended his widely expected bid to be a European Commissioner on 17 August, amid a rift between the FM and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda.

• Two former senior officials from North Macedonia and Bulgaria are reportedly in the running to become deputy NATO secretary-general.
• First is former North Macedonian DM Radmila Šekerinska, who played a key role in North Macedonia joining NATO four years ago; second is former Bulgarian deputy PM Mariya Gabriel, who was European commissioner for innovation, research, culture, education and youth until 2023.
• Poland and Turkey are also considering offering their own candidates.

Kremlin shows true colours as Ukrainian forces advance further into Kursk 

UKRAINE

• Ukrainian troops are now at least 35 kilometres inside the Kursk region and have taken control of over 82 settlements, according to Kyiv officials.
• The armed forces have destroyed two bridges to secure their position and set up a military administrative office, with army chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stating it would ‘maintain law and order’ and meet the local population’s needs.

• In response, Russian MFA ambassador-at-large Rodion Miroshnik said that peace talks have been ‘put [on] a long pause’ as the Kremlin refuses to negotiate amidst so-called ‘terrorist actions.’
• The incursion has embarrassed the Kremlin, exposing its hypocrisy and reaffirming its sole aim, as stated in a RIA Novosti editorial: ‘No negotiations. Ukraine simply should not exist.’
• This makes retaliation likely; since Kyiv’s offensive began, Moscow has captured more territory around Ukraine’s Donetsk region, ignited a fire at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and launched three missile attacks on Kyiv.

• Indian PM Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Ukraine on 23 August, spending half a day in Kyiv to promote dialogue and diplomacy amidst the ongoing conflict.
• The visit may also be seen as an effort to rehabilitate his reputation, following a meeting with Putin that coincided with Russia’s brutal attack on the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in Kyiv.

• The Biden administration is reportedly open to providing Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles, which would enhance the combat capabilities of Ukraine’s F-16s.

• Government officials met with parliament members on 13 August to address concerns about plans to buy Russian-made reactors from Bulgaria.
• Officials want to bring two new units online at the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Station by buying said Russian-made reactors, for an estimated $600 million.
• Several parliamentarians, including at least one from Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s own party, have expressed concerns that the deal could waste much of the country’s strained budget on outdated technology and potentially fuel corruption.

• Zelenskyy submitted a package of bills to the Verkhovna Rada aimed at ratifying the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court last week, which would provide Ukraine with more tools to hold Russian war criminals accountable.

• A new law legalising medical cannabis also came into effect in Ukraine on 16 August, in response to the high need for cannabis use in the rehabilitation of army veterans with PTSD.

• On 30 June 2024, 4.2 million non-EU citizens who fled Ukraine had temporary protection status in the EU – according to Eurostat figures.
• Among the EU countries that provided data, most beneficiaries of temporary protection were in Germany (1,347,525) and Poland (965,775).

Protests erupt in Bratislava after string of controversial government decisions

CZECHIA