Will Türkiye Take a Side After the May Elections?

Ankara's "middle way" between the West and Russia is poised to be challenged

4 May 2023

Albin Sybera, Vitaly Portnikov, Paweł Marczewski

Turkish elections may lead to domestic instability sidelining the country’s foreign policy. Budapest hosts the CPAC forum, gathering populists who eye a comeback into frontline politics while Hungary pushes to unlock EU funds. Allies speed up efforts to provide Ukraine with ammunition and military deliveries ahead of the anticipated counteroffensive.

Turkish Parliamentary and Presidential elections 14 May – comment by Ukrainian journalist Vitaly Portnikov

The presidential and parliamentary elections in Türkiye on 14 May 2023 are the first in a long decade of voting that could lead to a change of power in the country, but these elections could also lead to instability and turbulence. For stability in Türkiye, it is important that one political force controls both the presidential palace and the parliament. However, there is a possibility that one political force is given the presidency and the other control parliament. And in this case, confrontation seems inevitable.

This is why it is now difficult to understand what Türkiye’s foreign policy will be. President Erdoğan has until recently managed to successfully pursue the concept of a “middle path” – and this despite Türkiye’s membership of NATO and its perpetual status as a candidate for the EU. Erdoğan was not afraid of confrontation with the West, but at the same time, maintained a trusting relationship with Putin and even tried to mediate in Russia’s war with Ukraine. Either way, the “grain deal” mediated by Erdoğan is the only diplomatic achievement of this war.

Editor’s Pick: Europe Day Celebrations Marred By Russia’s War  

Subscribe

Democratic security comes at a price. What is yours? By subscribing or donating now gain access to analysis, forecasts and scenarios by leading analysts and reporters who monitor democratic risks and develop policy debate from Central Europe on Central Europe.

MonthlyVAT included

€4/month

See all details

  • Full access to articles and all reports in PDF
  • Weekly outlook on democratic security in CEE delivered by e-mail
  • Weekly newsletter with essential highlights
  • Invitations to all Visegrad Insight events online and offline

AnnualVAT included

€40/year

See all details

  • Individual subscribers only. Check our CORPORATE OFFER below
  • 15% Discount (8 EUR off monthly cost if paid annually)
  • Full access to articles and all reports in PDF
  • Weekly outlook on democratic security in CEE delivered by e-mail
  • Weekly newsletter with essential highlights
  • Invitations to all Visegrad Insight events online and offline

Student OR Donation

Choose your contribution

See all details

  • Full access to articles and all reports in PDF
  • Weekly newsletter with essential highlights
  • Some Visegrad Insight events invitations

Can I receive an invoice?

Yes. You will receive a receipt immediately after purchase and a VAT invoice upon request. The subscription amount includes tax. In case of a donation, there is no tax.

Are my credit card details safe?

Yes. The payment is processed by STRIPE www.stripe.com entrusted also by Amazon, Zoom, Booking.com and used by other global NGOs and businesses in the world. We do not store your credit card details.

How modify or cancel my subscription?

At any moment you can manage your subscription and account details. Sign in to modify or cancel.

Newsletter

Weekly updates with our latest articles and the editorial commentary.