Foresight
Politics
Poland’s 2025 Presidential Race: Tusk’s Patriotic Gamble
21 April 2025
Germany’s federal elections this month come at a time of economic uncertainty and shifting political alliances. Experts from Central and Eastern Europe weigh in on what a new German government could mean for their countries, from economic ties and security cooperation to concerns over the rise of nationalism and Germany’s stance on EU rule of law enforcement.
Germany’s federal election on 23 February will test the country’s political stability like never before. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is now in second place, narrowing the lead of the frontrunner, the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). For decades, mainstream parties have upheld a ‘firewall’ against working with the far right. That firewall now looks weaker than ever.
Listen to the full survey: Part 1 here
What happens in Germany will have consequences far beyond its borders. Experts warn that political stability in Berlin is crucial, as economic stagnation, high energy prices and rising nationalism could weaken Germany’s leadership in the EU.
The AfD’s growing influence is a major concern across the region, particularly for Poland and Romania, where fears of extremist rhetoric dominate.
Security and defence policies are dividing lines – while Poland, Czechia and Romania seek stronger EU support for Ukraine and deterrence against Russia, Hungary and Slovakia take a more cautious stance.
Migration policy is another flashpoint, with Germany’s internal debate over border controls affecting cross-border trade and movement in Poland and Slovakia.
Germany’s approach to the rule of law in the EU – especially its willingness to use financial leverage against countries like Hungary – will shape the bloc’s democratic resilience.
Visegrad Insight asked experts from Poland, Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria to weigh in on what is at stake. Below you will find a truncated, edited version – be sure to listen to the podcasts to hear the full responses.
Navigation:
Poland
Czech Republic
Hungary
Slovakia
Romania
Bulgaria
Rule of Law
Poland – Marzenna Guz-Vetter
Current relationship with Germany:
Polish-German relations are back to normal after eight years of very frosty ties under Poland’s Law and Justice government. However, they remain below expectations, with stagnation despite hopes for a fresh start.
Germany’s most significant recent decision:
The Zeitenwende was the most dramatic shift in German policy, especially coming from the Social Democrats, who had been very blue-eyed on Russia for years. … However, a more concerning development has been the rise of nationalism and populism in Germany, particularly in the east.
Best and worst coalition outcomes:
For Poland, the best outcome is that the nationalist, euro-sceptic AfD stays out of government. … If the CDU wins and forms a coalition with the Social Democrats and Greens, it will be a shaky arrangement, but still preferable.
Top priority for the next government:
Economic reform should be the priority. Germany’s economy has stagnated, largely due to high energy prices after the end of cheap Russian gas imports. … Migration policy is another pressing concern, as it dominates the German election campaign, but the CDU’s proposal to reinstate border controls is highly problematic for Poland.
Areas for cooperation:
A CDU-led government would likely be a better partner for Donald Tusk than Scholz’s Social Democrats, given their past leniency toward Russia. This could lead to greater German involvement in Baltic and Nordic security cooperation, where Poland already plays a key role. However, migration policy will remain a major point of contention.
Biggest hopes and fears:
The biggest fear is that Germany fails to implement key reforms, leading to declining public support and a further rise of the AfD. … The best outcome would be a stable German government capable of driving EU policy and economic reforms. The Weimar Triangle remains largely ineffective, often in ‘winter sleep mode’.
Marzenna Guz-Vetter is a senior fellow at Visegrad Insight and former director of the European Commission Representation in Poland.
Czechia – Zuzana Lizcová
Current relationship with Germany:
Czech-German relationships have been repeatedly described by politicians from both countries as the best in history … shaped by intensive economic cooperation and shared membership in NATO and the EU. … However, there is a significant asymmetry – Czechia, as a much smaller country, does not receive much attention.
Germany’s most significant recent decision:
It was Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Zeitenwende decision that tightened Germany’s defence and energy security policy after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. … [This] strengthened Czechia’s position and created new opportunities for cooperation, particularly in LNG capacity and defence.
Best and worst coalition outcomes:
The best outcome would be a stable, democratic and pro-European German government as soon as possible. This might seem like a given, but political developments in neighbouring countries like Slovakia and Austria show that such stability is not guaranteed.
Areas for cooperation:
Czech companies are deeply integrated into German supply chains, and their prosperity depends on the performance of German car manufacturers. … [Also] changes in German migration policy could affect the European asylum system. Germany’s resilience and defence policy will play a key role in the security of Central Europe.
Biggest hopes and fears:
That it will be difficult for Germany’s traditional political parties to reach an agreement and form a stable government capable of leading the country out of the current economic crisis. … A positive surprise would be if these parties manage to find a new consensus and steer the country toward stability and prosperity.
Any surprises?
Another unknown is the political situation in Czechia. General elections are planned for autumn 2025, and the government could change significantly, as the populist ANO movement is currently leading convincingly in the opinion polls.
Zuzana Lizcová is a lecturer at the Institute of International Studies, Charles University Prague and a freelance journalist.
Hungary – Péter Krekó
Current relationship with Germany:
Hostile, cold and sarcastic. … Communication exists, but it is rarely positive, and there is little progress in bilateral relations. … Orbán and his government take pleasure in the weakening of Germany’s coalition parties and frequently mock the German political elite on social media.
Germany’s most significant recent decision:
Germany played a crucial role in … the freezing of Hungary’s EU funds, which has severely hurt the Hungarian economy. … The previous ‘honeymoon’ period under Merkel, where Orbán felt he could negotiate anything, is now over.
Best and worst coalition outcomes:
A CDU/CSU-led government in coalition with the Socialists, Greens, or Liberals would provide continuity on rule of law issues while also likely adopting a more hawkish stance on Russia and Ukraine – something Orbán would oppose.
The Hungarian government’s ideal but unrealistic scenario would be an AfD–BSW coalition, as both are sympathetic toward Russia and share Orbán’s hardline stance on immigration.
Predictions?
Orbán’s ties to CDU/CSU run deep, built over two decades, and Fidesz politicians still maintain strong relationships within the party. … While Magyar is officially CDU/CSU’s new point of contact, in practice, Fidesz could reestablish some of its old ties. A Merz-led government would likely be tougher on immigration and ideologically closer to Orbán than the current coalition.
Areas for cooperation:
Key sectors like car manufacturing and agriculture are closely linked, making economic alignment the easiest area for cooperation. Both economies also share an interest in engaging with China … [and] would likely be less committed to the green agenda.
However, security policy is a clear fault line. Orbán remains opposed to increasing EU assistance for Ukraine, while German elites, including Merz, are … even more hawkish than Scholz.
Any surprises?
A potential surprise could come from Orbán himself. If he overplays his obstructionist role in the EU, he could make new enemies in Berlin. Manfred Weber was once an ally of Orbán until CDU/CSU turned against him, leading to Fidesz’s expulsion from the EPP.
Péter Krekó is a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and Director of the Political Capital Institute.
Slovakia – Tomáš Strážay
Current relationship with Germany:
Relations with Germany have consistently been perceived positively by Slovak governments, regardless of their political composition. Germany is Slovakia’s biggest trade partner and one of its largest investors.
Germany’s most significant recent decision:
I would perhaps choose the decision on migration rules in Germany because migration has been a very hot issue in Slovakia, especially for the current government in Bratislava … with the prevention of illegal migration and the reduction of migration flows being of utmost importance.
Best and worst coalition outcomes:
The creation of a grand coalition with the SPD would be one of the most realistic options. That would mean that, for Slovakia, nothing would really change in Slovak-German relations. The position of the current Slovak government on many strategic issues … is different from that of Germany’s current government and would likely remain so after the elections.
Areas for cooperation:
The protection of EU borders and the reduction of migration flows, particularly concerning illegal migrants, would be the main common ground between the new German government and today’s government in Slovakia. … The most difficult point might be increased support for Ukraine’s efforts to fight against Russia by all means.
Biggest hopes and fears:
Decisions taken by the new German government … may negatively impact the economic and social situation of significant parts of the German population, which could ultimately lead to the victory of anti-system parties. … I would be pleasantly surprised if coalition talks proceed quickly and a new government is formed within a reasonable timeframe.
Tomáš Strážay is the director of the Research Centre of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association.
Romania – Alina Inayeh
Current relationship with Germany:
Friendly. Germany is of course a very important market for Romania and trade partner, so we have friendly relations.
Germany’s most significant recent decision:
Everything Germany has done to support Ukraine has been crucial for us. However, I would say that even more important than Germany’s support for Ukraine, which has had its ups and downs, is its decision to decouple from Russia in energy. How successful this has been, is, and will be remains to be seen.
Best and worst coalition outcomes:
The rise of AfD is what worries me most. Some might say, ‘Well, they don’t have a majority, so even if they are part of a coalition, they won’t be able to push through radical policies.’ That may be true, but just having them there, giving them a platform, and allowing their rhetoric to become mainstream is already dangerous.
Top priority for the next government:
A broader understanding of security. Military spending is important … but security in a wider sense is still not fully recognised. By this I mean economic security, societal resilience and security at the societal level.
Areas for cooperation:
Romania and Germany have friendly relations, but I would like to see this develop into a real partnership, particularly in the economic field. … Germany and Romania could support each other in energy policy … transportation and infrastructure development.
Biggest hopes and fears:
If the polls are correct, I don’t expect any major surprises. I don’t see a significant shift in Germany’s Ukraine policy, nor do I anticipate much additional support, given the well-known budgetary and economic constraints. At the same time, I don’t expect negative surprises … What I will be watching closely is Germany’s approach to decoupling from Russia.
Alina Inayeh is a Visegrad Insight fellow and lead advisor for the Aspen Institute Romania.
Bulgaria – Vessela Tcherneva
Current relationship with Germany:
I would say friendly and slightly suspicious. … This is not only due to Bulgaria’s long-standing political instability but also because Germany witnessed the previous long GERB rule, which became notorious for corruption.
Germany’s most significant recent decision:
Bulgaria and Romania’s Schengen membership was long overdue, and despite its own challenges with Schengen, Germany did not oppose Bulgaria’s membership. More importantly, it helped overcome the Austrian veto, which was crucial for us.
Best and worst coalition outcomes:
If the key tasks this year are strengthening Ukraine’s position for negotiations and driving economic growth in Germany and CEE, then we need a coalition with a strong foreign policy stance that isn’t wobbly on Russia … From this perspective, a coalition between the CDU and the Greens, or CDU, Greens and FDP, would be the most favourable outcome.
Top priority for the next government:
It’s crucial that European political parties, especially the EPP, do not look away as they have in the past when it comes to governance in Bulgaria. … Another key issue will be how the next German government approaches relations with Viktor Orbán. It’s not entirely clear yet, but we may actually see more channels of communication than before.
Areas for cooperation:
I don’t believe Bulgaria will play a significant role, except on nuclear energy, where its position aligns more with France than Germany. On foreign and security policy, Bulgaria is likely to remain passive. … As for internal EU policies, this remains uncertain. Borissov is showcasing close ties with Orbán … Domestically this might be popular, but at the European level, it’s less beneficial.
Biggest hopes and fears:
I hope that a government led by Merz will be able to rebuild solid European leadership alongside France and Poland. … My fear is that what is happening in Austria could become a trend in Germany. AfD is still growing, and while the cordon sanitaire has held so far, it could be lifted in future regional elections.
Vessela Tcherneva is Deputy Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations and Head of the Sofia Office.
Rule of Law – Márta Pardavi
Current relationship with Germany:
I would say worried, dialogue-based and moderate. Germany has significant potential to act on rule of law issues, but it exercises this power with moderation. This is partly due to the structure of both the German political system and the EU. It also reflects Germany’s habitual approach … [which] prioritises unity and a consensus-based response.
Germany’s most significant recent decision:
Germany’s approach to rule of law issues has often been criticised for being too cautious … but there was a notable shift in 2022. … [when] Germany supported the EC’s proposal to apply the conditionality mechanism against Hungary. This led to the suspension of over €6 billion in EU funds, followed by another €22 billion being frozen.
Predictions?
I could see … an acceleration of rule of law conditionalities, possibly a stricter approach than before. Given Germany’s own economic constraints, it may be less willing to contribute as much to the EU budget and will want to ensure that EU funds are spent prudently. This could lead to stronger scrutiny over corruption.
Top priority for the next government:
A stronger focus on domestic vulnerabilities – stress tests for democratic institutions, political systems, and constitutional safeguards – would be valuable. … With potential shifts in the US administration and changes in global leadership, questions will also arise about Germany’s foreign aid budget … Germany, either independently or through the EU, could champion key human rights issues.
Biggest hopes and fears:
My biggest fear is that the new German government could move away from seeing the EU as a valuable structure for achieving both its own and Europe’s interests. … Another fear is a return to old habits, particularly regarding Russia and Ukraine. … Clinging to the belief that dialogue always works – especially with autocrats – would be a serious mistake.
Any surprises?
A positive surprise could come in the form of Germany taking the lead in strengthening the EU rule of law enforcement. … I’d also watch for potential new partnerships, especially between Germany and Poland, on the rule of law issues.
Marta Pardavi is the Chairperson of the Hungarian Helsinki Committee.
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