Event: Rule of Law in Poland

Visegrad Insight Breakfast on 8 February 2024

8 February 2024

A closed-door session delving into the current dilemma Poland is facing with regard to the changes the new Polish government is making to reverse the rule of law decline over the past eight years.

On 8 February at 9 AM at our premises at Gałczyńskiego 5 in Warsaw, ambassadors and dignitaries met to discuss the latest political developments in Poland as the new government seeks to restore the rule of law and restructure the public media.

Wojciech Przybylski and Adam Jasser presented a brief overview of the situation in Poland. The primary concerns revolved around President Andrzej Duda’s political manoeuvring, the future of PiS influence in Poland, defence cooperation and the economy.

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Duda’s actions are currently unpredictable, but what we do know is that it would be beneficial for him to seek compromises with Donald Tusk’s government. However, for unknown reasons, he is not interested in cooperation.

In Poland, a heated debate is underway regarding the future of an infrastructural project, the Central Communication Port, an airport that will pull traffic away from the capital (CCP), initiated during the Law and Justice ruling. Tusk contends that there is a dearth of non-politicized expertise, while PiS insists on advancing further efforts towards the Port’s construction.

Duda is currently the leading advocate for the CCP. However, this goes beyond his purview as the president does not engage in shaping policy.

New opposition’s role

The question of PiS’s continued political influence in Poland is repeatedly resurfacing due to the upcoming local elections (7 April). 

PiS has always struggled to secure 40% of the votes in parliamentary elections; it has only happened once. So, where is this reserve of support that they can mobilise in the near future? I don’t see it now. Part of PiS’s narrative is already exhausted and won’t be reheated anew.

Furthermore, in 2025, Poles will cast their ballots in presidential elections. We already know that Szymon Hołownia, the leader of Polska2050 and the Marshal of the Sejm, will be running for office, while Tusk and Kaczyński are struggling with the choice of a candidate to represent their respective parties.

Besides Polish politics, we also delved into the topic of Poland in Europe. On Monday, Donald Tusk and Radosław Sikorski, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, met with counterparts from the Weimar Triangle, aiming to rejuvenate relations with France and Germany. Currently, leaders of the countries face numerous common challenges, such as the war in Ukraine, responding to farmers’ protests, and security.

Interestingly, in politically divided Poland, there is a consensus across party lines on security challenges. It seems that both the current government and Law and Justice employ a similar narrative regarding the need to strengthen security.

The VISEGRAD INSIGHT BREAKFAST (VIB) format invites a select group of ambassadors, diplomats, experts and journalists for regular off-the-record meetings with a Central European perspective.


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