EU Foreign Ministers Snub Budapest as Commissioner Nominations Begin

On 25 July, Ursula von der Leyen penned letters to 25 member states requesting that they send their nominations for EU commissioners. Dubravka Šuica, Jozef Síkela, Kaja Kallas, Valdis Dombrovskis, Olivér Várhelyi, Maroš Šefčovič and Tomaž Vesel have all been nominated from CEE – but who else will join them ahead of the 30 August deadline?

Upcoming on Visegrad Insight:

• Wojciech Przybylski sat down with Polish FM Radosław Sikorski who challenged Viktor Orbán’s anti-Western narratives- click here to read the interview
• Valeriia Novak outlines where Ukraine and the EU can make progress in integration during Hungary’s time as EU CO president.
• Albin Sybera looks into the state of the Czech media space in light of the oldest, daily print newspaper, Lidové noviny, announcing it is going solely digital.

Poland calls for more investment in European security regardless of US election results

GLOBAL

• The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell decided to stick with his plan to summon foreign ministers to Brussels in late August, meaning that no ministers will be available for the equivalent summit in Budapest.
• The boycott is a significant blow to Hungary’s plans to take the diplomatic spotlight and reflects foreign ministers’ overwhelming criticism of ‘Hungary’s lack of sincere and loyal cooperation’ in its EU Council presidency.
• Ministers also boycotted Hungary’s informal meeting of EU health ministers on 25 July, and EP committees reportedly won’t be asking Hungarian officials to present their policy-specific presidency priorities until the second half of September.

• Visegrad Insight exclusive: in the FAC on 22 July, Polish FM Radosław Sikorski proposed as a compromise that the meeting in August be held in Ukraine.
• At first, the suggestion was met with enthusiasm by the Hungarian FM, but he soon received other instructions from the capital and ultimately had to veto the proposal – another drawback of Hungary ‘situating itself between Moscow and Brussels’.
• Read here for more exclusives from our interview with the Polish FM.

• Ahead of the FAC, Sikorski’s ministry also circulated a non-paper on the need to invest more in European security as well as transatlantic relations. 
• ‘[The] US is and will remain Europe’s strategic partner regardless of who is in the White House next year. And regardless of who wins, we have to take more responsibility for Europe’s defence and security,’ the FM said in a written statement.
• ‘In my opinion, Europe has no other choice but [to] get ready for a change. America will keep an eye close on Asia. It is our job to explain to our US partners that as long as we are feeling Russia’s threat, we won’t be able to engage fully there.’
• In a word, the non-paper argued that both sides need to ‘take swift and robust action to strengthen the transatlantic relations through strategic communication about the EU in the US,’ making clear to Americans that Europe is still their most important and reliable partner and that Ukraine is a necessary, and not excessive, investment.

• Kamala Harris’ campaign banked a record $81 million in the 24 hours after her candidacy was announced, rising to $200 million in the first week with 66% of funds coming in from new donors.
• The US VP looks set to take on the Democratic presidential nomination, so attention now turns to whom she chooses to join her on the ticket, when a debate with Donald Trump will take place, and whether Harris can continue to ride the tide of support.
• According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll from 23 July, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 44% to 42% – within the 3-percentage-point margin of error – compared to a two-point deficit Joe Biden faced against Trump before his exit from the race.

• On 25 July, Ursula von der Leyen sent letters to 25 countries giving them until 30 August to send their names for EU commissioners – one male, one female.
• Confirmed CEE nominations include Dubravka Šuica (Croatia, EPP), Jozef Síkela (Czechia, EPP), Kaja Kallas (Estonia, Renew), Olivér Várhelyi (Hungary, Patriots), Valdis Dombrovskis (Latvia, EPP), Maroš Šefčovič (Slovakia, S&D) and Tomaž Vesel (Slovenia, Renew).
• Rumoured CEE nominations include Iliana Ivanova (Bulgaria, EPP) and Gabrielius Landsbergis (Lithuania, EPP), but with speculations about PM Ingrida Šimonytė and Finance Minister Gintare Skaiste, as well as Piotr Serafin (Poland, EPP).

• German Green MEP Daniel Freund has said that he was targeted by a sophisticated surveillance tool just two weeks before the EU election.
• Accordingly, a draft communication from the EC, written in response to an EP committee report on spyware, states that EU countries should no longer be able to call on national security as justification for their use of spyware nor ‘exercise their responsibility in a way that undermines the effectiveness of EU law’.
• When final, such a document would be the first time the Commission has taken a stance on spyware – read here to learn why this has long been a topic of contention within the EU’s Media Freedom Act.

Ukraine prepares for second peace summit with Narendra Modi to visit Kyiv on 23 August

UKRAINE

• FM Dmytro Kuleba became the first Ukrainian official to visit Beijing since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 last week. 
• During the visit – which comes as Kyiv plans to hold another peace summit by the end of 2024, this time with a Chinese presence –  FM Wang Yi told his Ukrainian counterpart that the time was ‘not yet ripe’ for peace talks to end the war with Russia.
• Indian PM Narendra Modi is also expected to visit Ukraine and meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 23 August, in what would also be his first visit since Russia’s invasion.
• India has adopted a neutral position concerning the war and does not sell military equipment to Russia, but it does help sell Russian oil and failed to endorse the conclusory text at the previous peace summit supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

• As G7 allies continue to finalise plans to provide Ukraine with $50 billion in loans, the EU is considering two options to freeze Russian assets for longer: an open-ended immobilisation of the assets that would be reviewed at regular intervals, or lengthening the roll-over period.
• This follows US concerns that the EU’s sanctions regime – which requires an extension every six months by a unanimous vote of 27 member states – could become a problem if the freeze weren’t renewed at some point.
• The US is also looking for further concessions to give its political blessing to the agreement, although EU and US officials have informally agreed to equally share their contributions to the loan, giving $20 billion each.

• On 26 July, the EU transferred €1.5 billion in proceeds from immobilised Russian assets to the defence and reconstruction of Ukraine.
• The EC has also claimed that the European arms industry can produce 1.4 to 1.7 million rounds of 155mm calibre artillery ammunition by the end of 2024, but actual numbers are estimated to be closer to a third of that – according to Vsquare.

• Ukraine agreed to restructure more than $20 billion of international debt with private creditors last week, with the bondholders’ committee accepting nominal losses of 37% of their holdings, forgoing $8.67 billion of claims.

• Germany and Britain, Europe’s two largest donors of military aid to Ukraine, have signed a defence pact which commits both sides to ramp up industrial coordination and joint operations.
• British DM John Healey closed the pact during a whistle-stop tour of Europe that also included France, Poland and Estonia.
• ‘These visits send a clear message that European security will be this government’s first foreign and defence priority,’ Healey said in a statement.

• Russia has pulled all its vessels out of the Sea of Azov following successful attacks on targets in Russian-annexed Crimea and elsewhere in the Black Sea, according to Dmytro Pletenchuk, a Ukrainian navy spokesman.

• The ISW has also said Russia would face ‘significant’ problems keeping up troop numbers and replacing losses of equipment in the medium to long term.
• British General Sir Roly Walker echoed the analysis, saying that Moscow could lose up to 1.8 million soldiers just by trying to reach its minimum objectives of capturing Donetsk and Luhansk in the east, as well as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south.
• Amid such mounting pressure to find replacements for lost troops, Russia’s authorities have offered a $22,000 bonus to recruits willing to join its war on Ukraine.

European Commission condemns state of the rule of law in Hungary and Slovakia 

CZECHIA