Austrian Far-Right Victory Will Energise Central European Nationalists

The far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) won elections in Austria last week, with 29% support according to exit polls. It is the latest in a series of pro-Russian parties to win significant backing in Central Europe – on the back of successes for the AfD in Germany and ANO in Czechia. It also elevates the topic of migration to the top of the EU agenda.

Upcoming on Visegrad Insight:

• Martin Ehl argues why Europe must prioritise reliability over price in critical areas like defence, technology and raw materials.
• Ivan Us analyses how Russia is using wheat to assert itself globally, but Europe has the tools in its backyard to reverse course.

Nordics propose an expanded link between the rule of law and EU funding – as the EC readies action against Slovakia   

GLOBAL

• Leaked internal documents from the Kremlin’s Social Design Agency (SDA) reveal numerous, well-coordinated campaigns to plant disinformation across Western nations and interfere in key elections.
• One report claims that in the first four months of 2024, the SDA’s bot army dubbed the ‘Russian Digital Army,’ generated 33.9 million comments and 39,899 ‘content units’ on social media, including 4,641 videos and 2,516 memes and graphics.
• The intentions are also clearly spelt out: ‘[t]he outcome of [2024] campaigns will largely determine the West’s future sanctions policy towards Russia and support for Ukraine,’ the Russian report writes. ‘Public opinion in the project’s target countries is gradually moving towards reducing or completely stopping support for Ukraine.’

• US Senators published a statement on 25 September criticising Georgia’s Anti-Corruption Bureau and its decision to label Transparency International Georgia and Vote for Europe as organisations ‘with a declared electoral goal.’

• On 23 September, the EC launched a case against China’s anti-subsidy probe into European milk and cream – widely seen as Beijing’s retaliation for EU duties on made-in-China electric cars (EVs).
• The move followed reports that Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao failed in his Brussels mission to avert EU duties and that EU nations would vote to introduce tariffs as high as 45% on 25 September.
• It was later revealed, however, that Chinese negotiators stayed in Brussels following a meeting between Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis last week and continued 11th-hour negotiations.
• The EU has now scheduled a vote for 4 October, but it remains to be seen if the date will be delayed again, and how long the EU and China will continue negotiations to find an alternative solution.

• Access to the EU budget should be tied to countries respecting the rule of law and fundamental rights without exception, according to a joint letter penned by ministers from Sweden and Finland on 24 September.
• Access to EU funding programmes such as cohesion funding is subject to meeting ‘enabling conditions,’ such as respect for the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, without which funds can be frozen – this is what happened in Hungary and Poland.
• The letter proposes that such conditions should also cover billions in subsidies given out each year under the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and so become a ‘general feature in all areas of the EU budget.’
• Their call comes as the EU Commission (EC) reportedly prepares to take action against Slovakia in reaction to legislative changes brought in by PM Robert Fico.

Austrian far-right win boosts Central European nationalists

• Migration will likely be a hot topic at the next European Council (EUCO) summit on 17-18 October as ambassadors meet in Coreper II this week to plan the agenda.
• Germany, which angered Poland and several other neighbours by implementing land border checks from mid-September, wants a serious debate – but any debate around changing Schengen rules is likely to be explosive.
• Read this European Council on Foreign Relations report for the sobering realities challenging ‘the bloc’s free, open, and equal space.’

• This will especially be the case following the victory of the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) in elections in Austria last week, with 29% support according to exit polls – 3% ahead of the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP), but short of a majority.
• Party leader Herbert Kickl has tapped into fears about immigration in Austria. Ursula von der Leyen has also given Austria the EC Internal Affairs and Migration portfolios.
• The FPÖ victory is the most recent of several far-right wins across Europe, following the AfD in Germany and ANO party in Czechia. Most of the big names of the CEE pro-Kremlin club, including Viktor Orbán, Robert Fico, Peter Pellegrini and Aleksandar Vučić, attended the 80th birthday ceremony of former Czech President Miloš Zeman – as well as Polish President Andrzej Duda.

Zelenskyy caught in Trump stand-off while Victory Plans fail to convince Western leaders  

UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on a broad alliance of nations to ‘force Russia into peace,’ in a war that ‘can’t be conquered by talks alone,’ while speaking at the UN Security Council meeting in New York on 24 September.
• Zelenskyy then met with POTUS Joe Biden and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in Washington on 26 September, where the former announced another $2.4 billion military package and vowed to convene a meeting with other world leaders focused on Ukraine’s defence during a visit to Germany next month.
• However, the White House stopped short of green-lighting Ukraine’s longstanding request to fire US-made long-range missiles into Russia – and Western officials downplayed Zelenskyy’s roadmap to victory.

• Zelenskyy firmly rejected a Chinese-Brazilian peace plan to end Russia‘s war, accusing the two countries of seeking to ‘boost their power at Ukraine’s expense.’
• The six-point plan, proposed in parallel to Zelenskyy’s 10-point formula, fails to mention Ukraine’s territorial integrity or back the withdrawal of Russian troops.
• It was formed in a discussion by 17 countries from the Global South, led by China and Brazil, and was labelled the ‘Friends for Peace’ initiative – yes, it was a Hungarian idea. Polish FM Radosław Sikorski also met with Chinese FM Wang Yi (王毅) on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on 25 September, but called instead on the country to play mediator between Kyiv and Moscow and ‘force peace on Russia.’

• Zelenskyy’s US trip was also overshadowed by public issues with Donald Trump and the Republican party. At a campaign stop in North Carolina, Trump lashed out at Zelenskyy for making ‘little nasty aspersions’, referring to an interview where Zelenskyy had questioned Trump’s pledge to negotiate a quick end to the war.
• The Ukrainian president also had to beat back controversy about his visit to a munitions factory in Scranton, Pennsylvania, where he was flanked by two of the state’s controversial Democratic lawmakers – Speaker Mike Johnson even called on Zelenskyy to fire his ambassador to Washington.
• The trip to Pennsylvania was a win for Harris, who has sought to use US support for Ukraine to appeal to the state’s 750,000-strong Polish-American community – and so Trump also criticised Zelenskyy for wanting Harris to win ‘so badly’.
• The pair did meet later and Trump was quick to praise their ‘very good relationship’, but he added that he also has a ‘very good relationship’ with Vladimir Putin.

• Also at the North Carolina event, Trump offered another preview of his foreign policy on Ukraine, saying that Ukrainians are ‘dead’ and Ukraine ‘demolished’ and that Kyiv should have made concessions to Russian President Vladimir Putin
• The Republican nominee further repeated that ‘The United States is paying for most of [NATO], and Europe is not chipping in…It’s very unfair on the United States.’
• In response, Harris had this to say: ‘Let us be clear, they are not proposals for peace. Instead, they are proposals for surrender.’

• Top diplomat Josep Borrell warned that Russia is targeting energy infrastructure in an effort to demoralise Ukrainians this winter and urged Western allies to provide more air defence systems – whilst also at the UNGA.
• Czech and Latvian FMs were quick to support the calls, with Baiba Braže again saying that it’s time to lift all restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western weapons.
• After all, Moscow has its own helpers in Iran, North Korea and China – see this Reuters report showing that Russia has established a weapons programme in China.

• Russia also plans to maintain defence spending at a historic high next year, reportedly dedicating 13.2 trillion rubles to the sector, or 6.2% of its economy.

Szijjártó courts Russian and Chinese partners for greater financial cooperation

CZECHIA