Yalta 2.0 Will Not Happen

Despite Putin’s more and more ambitious revisionist plans, the risk of a backdoor deal on Ukraine between some of the Western powers and the Kremlin is decreasing.

This Week On Visegrad Insight: 

• Elene Panchulidze and Richard Youngs propose to move on from the Eastern Partnership
• Interview with Gabrielius Landsbergis: Why Lithuania Foreign Minister Puts Democracy First
• Merili Arjakas explains the recent dynamics in the Estonian party politics
• Jiří Schneider considers how religion in CEE can help fight disinformation
• Michał Zabłocki shows how record-high air pollution impacts the region this winter
• Future of Belarus in Europe debate –  long-read for holidays

Weekly outlook

EU/regional:

• No EU common position on the 2022 Olympics in China. From CEE countries, Lithuania has announced its absence while Hungary is likely to block any motion calling for a possible diplomatic boycott. The annual China-EU summit has been postponed for next year amid low prospects of making progress and trade, human rights disputes.
• EU leaders promise to impose further economic sanctions in coordination with allies if the Kremlin decides to invade Ukraine, without citing specific measures. 
• Russia’s draft treaty of security assurances asks NATO to refrain from any military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Southern Caucasus, and Central Asia; pledge not to deploy any missiles close enough to hit Russia, and limit exercises to previously agreed numbers in border zones (i.e. Russia is to approve NATO’s exercises).
• 20 December: EU Ministers of Environment evaluate progress report dedicated to Fit for 55 packages, debate the ETS and other carbon regulation systems. 

EU Affairs

Hungary:

• Seven dead and four injured in a car wreck in the Hungarian village of Morahalom near the border with Serbia. The driver unsuccessfully attempted to evade a police check and crashed the vehicle with Serbian license plates transporting 10 migrants. 
• The latest polls commissioned by the United Opposition indicate 46 per cent support for the ruling Fidesz party and 32 per cent support for Hungary’s alliance of opposition parties. Despite losing momentum to Orbán’s Fidesz, serious election campaigns will commence in January and serve as a test for the opposition’s unity and consensus on strategy. 

Bulgaria: