The Politics of Mass Flooding in Central Europe

Severe floods in Central Europe have turned deadly and Poland, among others, is set to declare a state of natural disaster. Yet, major flooding in the region has historically also had significant political influence – with the potential to solidify support or turn public opinion.

Donald Tusk’s careful political messaging in recent days showcases a leader who wants to highlight the serious work being done to ensure the security of Poles and Central Europeans.

Trump echoes Orbán ‘peace’ narratives in US presidential debate

GLOBAL/Regional

• Late night on 15 September, Polish PM Donald Tusk announced that the country may soon declare a state of natural disaster amid massive floods sweeping through its south-western regions – and the deaths of at least two people.
• Torrential rain has forced mass evacuations across Central Europe, with some parts of Czechia facing the worst flooding in almost three decades – more than 10,000 people have been evacuated from the country, as per the head of the fire service.
• Four people have died in the eastern Romanian counties of Galati and Vaslui after torrential storms caused unprecedented flooding, stranding hundreds.
• Aside from the tragic humanitarian consequences, however, such mass flooding has historically always taken on a political component – see major floods in 2013 and 1997 – and can quickly turn public opinion depending on leaders’ responses.

• Tusk’s visual communication could not have been clearer as his Chancellery posted a video describing the ‘black hawk’ coming to Wrocław’s rescue – while Tusk himself replaced suit and tie with a khaki trench coat and a grim visage.
• In contrast, the Law and Justice (PiS) Party has tried to run the narrative that such mass flooding is the current government’s mal-use of their previous investment – even though said investments went mainly into the south-east – but Tusk made clear: ‘Whoever can, let them help; whoever cannot, let them not interfere.’
• Kyiv also capitalised on the opportunity by quickly offering aid to both Poland and Czechia – a ‘touching’ gesture as well as a reputation builder.

• Ursula von der Leyen was forced to postpone the announcement of her plans for the new EU executive until (at least) 17 September – more on why later.
• Nevertheless, CEE looks set to win big in von der Leyen’s plans. Not only is Poland’s Piotr Serafin a front-runner for budget commissioner, but Czechia’s Jozef Síkela is now increasingly likely to receive the trade portfolio – a rumour that was confirmed by Minister of European Affairs Martin Dvořák in a televised debate last week.
• On 18 September, in turn, PM Viktor Orbán is scheduled to finally present the priorities of the Hungarian EUCO presidency at the Strasbourg session – just as attention starts to shift to Poland’s presidency in the new year.
• But Péter Magyar has reportedly written to Roberta Metsola to postpone Orbán’s meeting, on account of the Central European flooding – more on their domestic feud in the Hungary section below.

• When asked whether he wanted Kyiv to win the war against Russia, Donald Trump said ‘I want the war to stop. I want to save lives.‘ Asked whether it was in the best interests of the US for Ukraine to win, Trump repeated his claim that Vladimir Putin would never have invaded Ukraine if he was in the White House.
• Such answers during the US presidential debate on 12 September showcase just how far Viktor Orbán’s ‘peace’ narratives have influenced the former US president.
• Indeed, when Harris told Trump that world leaders were ‘laughing’ at him, he called on his friend ‘Orbán, one of the most respected men, they call him a strong man.’

• Kamala Harris highlighted that such appeasement is no route to real peace and ‘the importance of the greatest military alliance the world has ever known, which is NATO’: ‘If it wasn’t for the Biden administration’s assistance to Ukraine, Putin would be sitting in Kyiv with his eyes on the rest of Europe, starting with Poland.’
• This final line resonated with Poles abroad, of course, but also seems to be part of an approach to target Americans of Eastern European descent across battleground states. A Democratic super PAC is unveiling a new ad campaign with precisely this purpose, touting Harris’ record on Ukraine and bashing Trump’s.
• Read this for another way the Democrats can learn from Polish election success.

• Deputy US State Secretary Kurt Campbell has warned Europe that China is increasingly central to Russia‘s war economy, providing Moscow with machine tools, explosives technologies and know-how on wielding space assets.
• Recent reports also say the duo are increasingly overlapping their espionage operations in Europe, as Beijing looks to recruit agents among EU politicians who have demonstrated fealty to Moscow.
• However, Russian payment hurdles with Chinese partners are finally starting to intensify, as Chinese banks tighten compliance following Western threats of secondary sanctions for dealing with Russia – according to Reuters.
• Read this for why draining Russian resources is key to ending the war in Ukraine.

• Former US ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft told Taiwan to become ‘the Poland of the  Pacific’ at the Taipei Security Dialogue 2024 – and Poland must use its momentum to get serious about the Pacific too.
• For an example, it can look to Lithuania, which the US praised during the 12 September US-Lithuania Strategic Dialogue for its resilience against China and growing economic ties with Taiwan.

• Poland, Baltic and Nordic nations, as well as France and Belgium, challenged International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva last week about the fund’s plans to engage with Russia for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine – seemingly sending the message that relations with Russia are normalising.
• Lithuania and others were expected to really turn the screws on Georgieva during a session with eurozone finance ministers in Budapest on 11 September – but only six out of 27 ministers attended in protest against the Hungarian EUCO presidency.

• Margarethe Vestager left her role as competition chief on a high as the EU’s top court handed the commission two major victories against Apple and Google – and Spain’s Teresa Ribera is rumoured to be the frontrunner to replace her.

US poised to approve Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons in Russia – after Western allies congregate in Kyiv

UKRAINE

• Kyiv welcomed several high-profile international visitors during the Crimea Platform Summit last week, including Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, Latvian PM Evika Siliņa and Czech Senate President Miloš Vystrčil.
• In a video message, Turkish President Recep Erdoğan emphasised that Crimea must be returned to Ukraine in accordance with international law.

• Discussions also continued through the week on whether or not to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with allied weapons.
• On 11 September, US State Secretary Antony Blinken and UK FM David Lammy met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the former gave his strongest approval yet, saying the US has ‘from day one’ been willing to adapt its policy and ‘will continue to do this.’
• On 14 September 14, POTUS Joe Biden and UK PM Keir Starmer failed to publicly approve strikes into Russia, but the latter hinted that developments on the use of Storm Shadow missiles will soon emerge – according to The Guardian, in fact, the decision has already been made in private.
• Addressing a joint news conference with Blinken in Warsaw, Polish FM Radosław Sikorski made clear that Poland stands behind Ukraine and its desire to strike deeper into Russian territory: simply, ‘The victim of aggression has the right to defend itself.’

• Ukrainian FM Andrii Sybiha and Sikorski also discussed progress on forming the ‘Ukrainian Legion’ during the latter’s visit to Kyiv on 13 September, saying that appropriate practical steps are now ‘in the finalisation stage.’
• Sikorski also called on EU governments to suspend social benefits for Ukrainian men of conscription age, so as to encourage them to return to Ukraine and enlist.

• Ukraine plans to be ready to join the EU by the end of 2025 at the latest and sees its accession as an integral part of a ‘just peace,’ according to PM Denys Shmyhal.
• This comes ahead of the fundamentals screening that will take place this week (starting with Chapter 23 and FDI) as the next step in Ukraine’s accession process.

• Russian forces made minor advances as part of a counter-offensive in the Kursk region last week, according to the ISW. Zelenskyy confirmed that Russian troops had initiated ‘rapid offensive actions’ but had not achieved significant results.

• Ukraine targeted the Russian capital on 10 September in its biggest drone attack so far, killing at least one, destroying dozens of homes in the Moscow region and forcing around 50 flights to be diverted from airports around Moscow.

• 49 Ukrainian civilians and soldiers were returned from Russian captivity last week. Additionally, 103 Ukrainian soldiers were freed on 14 September 14 through a UAE-mediated exchange, with Russia receiving prisoners captured in the Kursk area.

• EU Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson reported that the share of Russian gas in EU imports dropped from 45% in 2021 to 18% by June 2024. In turn, imports from reliable partners such as Norway and the USA have increased and the EU is now prepared to fully eliminate supplies from Moscow.

Tusk condemns Germany’s ‘unacceptable’ border controls and their threat to the spirit of European Schengen

CZECHIA