How Hormuz Chokepoint Crowns US Dominance in CEE

As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a global chokepoint in economic warfare, continues, the fallout is going to cascade. Asian economies are often seen as the primary victims. But while the media in the CEE region tend to focus primarily on energy prices, there are at least three distinct ways in which the global turmoil will be pronounced on economic and democratic security in the region.

First, the LNG shortage stemming from the Middle East positions the United States (US) LNG for near-total dominance in CEE, where LNG imports cover roughly 40 per cent of domestic needs. Until February Poland was sourcing the majority of its LNG from the US (with Qatar accounting for a much smaller share, around one-fifth or less in recent data), while Croatia had relied on over 50 per cent from the US. This American dominance curbs the Russian leverage of the past, yet genuine diversification for the sake of energy security remains a distant goal.

Second, with approximately one-third of global fertiliser trade transiting the Strait of Hormuz now effectively disrupted or stranded due to the ongoing conflict, inflationary pressures are set to intensify further. This disruption creates ripple effects that will hit hardest in major importing regions such as India and Southeast Asia, where direct shortages of key fertilisers like urea and related inputs could drive up agricultural costs, reduce crop yields, and exacerbate food price inflation worldwide.