Pro-Russian Parties Surge Ahead of Ukraine’s Recovery and Peace Summits

European Parliamentary election results reflected a surge in backing for pro-Russian parties, while Russian attacks continued to rise across Europe.

This is the context in which the Bucharest Nine will assemble in Riga on 11 June, to talk defence on Europe’s eastern flank, before the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin on 11-12 June and Ukraine’s Peace Summit in Switzerland on 15-16 June.

Upcoming on Visegrad Insight:

• EVENT: European Election Results 10 June 2:00 PM CET / 8:00 AM ET. Click here for more details and to register
• Valeriia Novak breaks down how Ukrainian integration has multiple benefits for the single market and security of the continent ahead of the Ukrainian recovery and peace summits this week.
• Philipp Fritz looks into the growing importance of the Weimar Triangle and where it might extend its influence in EU policy.

Pro-Russian parties from CEE gain ground in European Parliament  

EU/regional

• Parties from CEE which proliferate Russian narratives are set to hold a significant number of seats in the next European Parliament.
• Poland’s far-right Confederation party took third place, winning 11.8% support and gaining 6 seats.
• Slovakia’s far-right and neo-fascist Republika received 12.5% of votes, winning 2 seats, while the ruling Smer party had a strong showing – more on this later.
• In addition to the populist ANO party, Czechia’s far-right SPD+Trikolora and the far-right, neo-fascist Přísaha a Motoristé parties won 5.7% (1 seat) and 10.26% (2 seats) respectively.
• Besides Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz, Hungary’s far-right Our Homeland Party won 6.76% and 1 seat.
• Other big results for pro-Russian parties in CEE included Romania’s AUR, which won 15% of votes and 6 seats; Bulgaria’s Revival party, which won 15.4% support and 3 seats; and Latvia’s National Alliance, which won 22.1% of votes and 2 seats.
• In France, the far-right Rassemblement National led by Marine Le Pen won 31.5%, in a very strong showing that prompted President Macron to call snap elections to be held in a month.
• Analysts are calling the move risky, with the French Liberation newspaper referring to it as an “extreme gamble”, but Macron warned that far-right parties are “progressing across the continent”.
• Provisional results in Germany suggest the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) have just beat the centre-left SPD and taken second place, giving them 16 seats.
• Collected together, the radical right parties in Europe would theoretically represent the second biggest bloc in the Parliament. However, the centre-focused, coalition parties of EPP and S&D will remain the two largest.

• For the first time in a decade, Donald Tusk’s centre-right Civic Coalition (KO) defeated the right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS), consolidating the PM’s strong position at home and abroad. KO won 37.4% of votes in the EP elections (20 seats) to PiS’s 35.7% (20).
• In Slovakia, Progressive Slovakia (PS) also managed to narrowly beat Robert Fico’s Smer party, winning 27.8% (6) support to the latter’s 24.8% (5). Turnout was exceptionally high, at 34.4%, considering the historically low rates for the country – in 2019, turnout was at 22.7%.
• In Czechia, the ANO party of billionaire ex-premier Andrej Babiš beat the ruling SPOLU coalition as expected, with 26.1% (7) support to SPOLU’s 22.3% (6).
• In Hungary, Péter Magyar confirmed his status as a serious rival to Viktor Orbán. Fidesz won 44.61% (11) support, but TISZA received 29.69% (7 of 21 seats!) only four months after Magyar’s emergence, with most of this support coming at the cost of other opposition parties’ support.
• In Bulgaria, PM Borissov’s GERB took first with 23%, while the anti-corruption coalition PP-DB came in just ahead of far-right Revival with 15.6%.
• In Romania, the grand ruling coalition of PSD-PNL had a commanding performance, winning 53% of the vote.

• Such results come as governments struggle to deal with a growing Russian campaign of sabotage attempts, including arson at military bases and civilian infrastructure across Europe – the FT reported.
• Pro-Russian hacker group HackNeT also displayed Russia’s cyberwarfare, hitting several Dutch political parties and disrupting EP election voting in the Netherlands.
• “The Netherlands is the first country to vote [for a new EP]” the group wrote on Telegram on 5 June, “so they’ll be the first to suffer from DDoS attacks.”
• The European Court of Auditors’ website was also shut down by cyberattacks.

• 11 June will be the first official commemoration of the 1995 Srebrenica massacre in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
• The UN approved the resolution to commemorate the Srebrenica genocide just two weeks ago on 23 May, over strong opposition from Serbs.
• Expect Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić to make use of the anniversary and demonstrations that could develop into more heated exchanges as tensions remain high in the region.
• Vučić and Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik organised a large nationalist gathering on 8 June, featuring calls for “unity” of all Serbs in the region – a message that raised eyebrows in neighbouring states.

Challenges deflate aspirations for Ukraine’s Peace Summit 

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