Analysis
Economic Security
The V4 Economies Weather Off Hormuz Blockade
29 April 2026
Ukraine’s challenge to Russia’s control of the Black Sea, the resilience of alternative routes on the Danube and pressure from the Global South may persuade Russia to rejoin the grain deal as harvests start in earnest.
Following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal, Ukrainian exports have shifted to alternative routes through the Danube ports, roads and railways, showing limits of Moscow’s ability to replace Ukraine in the global market.
With the new harvest filling in grain storage, Russia has accelerated attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure in Odesa and other Ukrainian Black Sea and Danube facilities that could be used to transport grain out of the country. And yet, some of the new routes, particularly on the Danube, are proving resilient and harder to attack.
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