Georgia Protests Reactions: Baltics Lead, Central Europe MIA

Protests have erupted in Georgia after the ruling Georgian Dream suspended EU membership talks. The Baltic nations were quick to condemn the decision, and Kaja Kallas has led support for Georgians from her new role as the EU’s top diplomat – while most Central European leaders have been missing in action.

Pro-EU protests sweep streets of Georgia after ruling party suspends accession talks

GLOBAL/REGIONAL

• Georgia was thrown into crisis on 28 November when PM Irakli Kobakhidze of the ruling Georgian Dream party abruptly announced that Tbilisi was halting EU membership talks for the next four years.
• Thousands of protestors have been rallying in Tbilisi and across the country for the four days since – despite the violent, Russian-style backlash of riot police.
• Georgia’s pro-Western President Salome Zourabichvili has called for pressure to be brought on the Constitutional Court to annul elections won by Georgian Dream last month – ahead of 14 December, the date parliament has set to elect a new president.

• On 29 November, more than 100 Georgian diplomats issued a joint statement condemning the ruling party’s decision, which they said defied the country’s constitution. The US also suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia, while new members of the EU’s top team expressed support for its people online.
• Lithuanian FM Gabrielius Landsbergis announced that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania had jointly agreed to impose national sanctions on those responsible for suppressing legitimate protests in Georgia.
• ‘It is clear that using violence against peaceful protesters is not acceptable, and the Georgian government should respect the will of the Georgian people,’ Kaja Kallas told journalists on 1 December.

• Polish President Andrzej Duda broke the Visegrad silence on Georgia, with his office calling for restraint and new elections.
• This echoes late President Lech Kaczyński’s 2008 warning of Russian expansionism: ‘Today Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine, the day after tomorrow – the Baltic States and later, perhaps, time will come for my country, Poland,’ Kaczyński said in his Tbilisi speech, urging action. Is Visegrad asleep at the wheel?

• The Netherlands has circulated a paper arguing that it is time to reflect on the effectiveness of sanctions, calling on states, the European Commission (EC) and the European Council (EUCO) to ‘step up and structurally strengthen’ enforcement.
• This comes ahead of the EU’s next package of Russia sanctions, which was discussed last week but has been sent back to technical civil servants for expansion – so as to include more individuals, companies and vessels. Ambassadors are expected to look at the package again this week.

• G7 FMs said they would ‘take appropriate measures…against actors in China and in other third countries that materially support Russia‘s war machine‘ in a joint statement from their meeting in Italy on 26 November.
• The group also condemned North Korea’s export of missiles and munitions to Russia in ‘direct violation of relevant UNSC Resolutions,’ announcing work on new monitoring mechanisms following Russia’s previous veto of the UN sanctions panel.
• While China continues to prop up Russia’s war machine, it remains to be seen whether it can uphold Russia’s economy – after the rouble plunged to its lowest rate against the dollar since the early weeks of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

• Kadri Simson cautioned against concealing the import of Russian gas from Ukraine by labelling the imports as Azerbaijani before stepping down as EU Energy Commissioner last week.
• European energy companies have been negotiating with counterparts in Ukraine and Azerbaijan to ensure that flows of gas to central Europe continue after Russian Gazprom supplies via Ukraine expire on 31 December. Azerbaijan would deliver gas to the Ukrainian border, from where it could then be sent to Europe.
• The main beneficiaries would be Hungary and Slovakia, who have defied the bloc’s efforts to wean off Russian gas. In contrast, Czechia has confirmed it will not seek an extension of its exemption from the EU ban on imports of Russian oil – which was granted as part of sanctions against Russia but expires on 5 December.

• The new European College began work on 1 December – but fewer than 50% of MEPs from Hungary, Czechia, Romania and Slovenia (as well as France, Spain and Belgium) actually backed Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s selection.
• Voting in Slovakia was particularly ironic, as Smer MEPs opted against the Commission – meaning that Smer nominated Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič only passed thanks to the support of the Progressive Slovakia, Hlas and KHD parties.

• The Hungarian EUCO presidency has proposed that defence projects should source almost two-thirds of their components from the EU and meet extra criteria to ensure the design of the weapons is European.
• This proposal dated 24 November, as well as proposals put forward by Poland and the Netherlands, are part of the Council’s response to the EC’s March proposal for the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP), a €1.5 billion pot of money to encourage European defence production and joint buying.
• EU ambassadors didn’t reach a deal on the proposal last week – with countries like France worried it might stymie national autonomy – but the Hungarian presidency will likely give it another try during a meeting of ambassadors on 5 December.

• PM Donald Tusk announced that Poland will not accept the free trade agreement between the EU and the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) in its current form – joining countries like France in its opposition.
• Both countries have politically influential farmers who fear a flood of cheaper imports which could prove a headache for their governments if they feel hard done by.

Poland and Ukraine announce progress on exhumation of Volhynia Massacre victims 

UKRAINE

• Kyiv and Warsaw issued a joint statement on the exhumation of victims of the Volhynia Massacre last week, outlining plans for both nations to establish a joint working group under their ministries of culture to ensure thorough discussions and agreements between parties.
• The legacy of the Volhynia massacres – in which around 100,000 Polish civilians were killed – has long tested relations between the two otherwise close allies, with Poland even suggesting it could block Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
• Read here: can Warsaw’s EU Presidency reframe enlargement through security?

• At least one million people were left without power across Ukraine after a significant Russian overnight missile attack on energy infrastructure on 28 November, forcing national power grid operator Ukrenergo to introduce emergency power cuts.

• Ursula von der Leyen’s top team looked to make a statement start after it was officially voted in last week. During a visit to Kyiv, EC President Antonio Costa announced that the EU will allocate €4.2 billion in aid to Ukraine by the end of 2024.
• Top diplomat Kaja Kallas also reaffirmed that Ukraine’s ‘strongest security guarantee is NATO membership’ – adding that the EU ‘shouldn’t really rule out anything’ regarding sending European troops to help enforce any ceasefire.

• The EU and Ukraine have also signed a Memorandum of Understanding to provide €18.1 billion in macro-financial assistance from immobilised Russian assets – as part of the G7’s broader strategy.
• And the Biden administration is reportedly preparing another urgent weapons package for Ukraine, this time worth $725m and including landmines, drones, Stinger anti-air missiles and Himars ammunition.

• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 1 December that there is still time to convince ‘sceptics‘ that Ukraine should be invited to join NATO. He also suggested on 29 November that NATO protection for the free part of Ukraine could end the ‘hot war’, leaving Kyiv to regain occupied areas through diplomatic means.
• Zelenskyy said that above all his country needs security guarantees from NATO and more weapons to defend itself before any talks with Russia can occur. All comments come before the next Ukraine-NATO Council meeting in Brussels on 3 December.

• Zelensky also held a phone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who shared details of his widely-criticised conversation with Vladimir Putin. Zelenskyy reportedly emphasised that only a united approach, combining military strength and diplomacy, can compel the Russian aggressor to end the war – not an increasingly appeasement-like approach.

• The Ukrainian President is due to sign Ukraine‘s 2025 budget, which calls for the country‘s first wartime tax increases, on 5 December.
• Finance minister Serhiy Marchenko said Ukraine hoped tax increases would generate additional budget revenues of 141bn hryvnia (US$3.39bn), and PM Denys Shmyhal said record sums would be directed to weapons production and purchase.

• Putin has also approved a military-focused budget for 2025-2027, including a 25% hike in military spending. With almost a third of total spending closed to public scrutiny, it is likely the most secretive budget in post-Soviet history.

• There was a degree of cautious optimism as President Donald Trump named retired Army General Keith Kellogg as special envoy for Ukraine and Russia – both in Ukraine and its neighbours – given his past expressions of support for Kyiv.
• Other public proposals by Kellogg, including one from April, advocating cease-fire negotiations that would see Ukraine not join NATO, have been rejected by Kyiv.
• It remains to be seen what the new US administration will bring. After all, Trump has also held multiple phone conversations with Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán since 5 November, seeking out his opinion on Ukraine – according to Radio Free Europe.

Tisza lead over Fidesz enters double digits as Orbán struggles to revive Hungary‘s economy

CZECHIA