France Is About To Lose Europe: An Amplified Risk For NATO’s Eastern Flank

Emmanuel Macron’s gamble may have prevented Marine Le Pen’s National Rally from taking over the government – at least for the time being – but it has unleashed mayhem upon France’s domestic affairs, and will almost certainly endanger France’s international security commitments.

“This is how fascism begins. It never says its name, it crawls, it floats, and when it shows the tip of its nose, we say: ‘Is it, really? You think so? You shouldn’t exaggerate!’ And then one day it slaps you hard in the face, and it’s too late to get rid of it.” – Giroud, Francoise. 1998. Gais-z-Et-Contents.

Such words are likely to haunt Emmanuel Macron for a long time. For the French president, the extremists’ slap was vigorous on 9 June – and trying to “get rid of it” involved an idea that would shatter the country’s political system: the dissolution of the National Assembly, following a frustrating showing for the presidential party at the European Parliamentary elections.

The decision to hold early national elections has generated an endless flow of analyses on media platforms and journals, commenting on the rise of the extremes – especially the “uninhibited Right” embodied by the Rassemblement National (National Rally), and the riotous extreme left of La France Insoumise (France Unbowed). Their economic programmes, the impact they might have on France’s foreign policy, European integration, NATO and Europe’s future have all turned into a catalogue of hazardous consequences.