Commentary
Economic Security
Lazy Economic Models Are Security Risks. Lessons on Economic Statecraft from CEE
4 June 2026
For Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the next Taiwan Strait crisis might begin not with sirens in Taipei, but with silence on a factory floor. The impact will reach supply chains long before the Chinese military.
A shipment is delayed. Insurance jumps. A supplier asks for twelve more weeks. A production line in Czechia, Poland or Slovakia begins to stutter because a component treated as a routine import turns out to be a critical node in a much deeper Taiwan-linked supply chain. These considerations in CEE are becoming increasingly relevant for the ongoing policy process in the EU.
Europe’s China debate is entering a harder phase. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has warned that the bloc’s trade deficit with China is becoming unsustainable and that diversification now requires a dedicated instrument. Recent pressure around export controls on rare earths and China’s overcapacity has reinforced a lesson CEE already knows from Russian energy, that efficiency without redundancy is not resilience.
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