Think Tank
Visegrad Insight Breakfasts
Event: Visegrad Insight Breakfast – Economic security in Central and Eastern Europe
4 October 2024
On 15 May 2024, Visegrad Insight hosted ambassadors, representatives from the embassies, and journalists to discuss the Central European perspective on the forthcoming 2024 European elections.
Three weeks before the elections to the European Parliament, we met with ambassadors and journalists to discuss the situation in the region, particularly in Poland. Magda Jakubowska, Vice President of the Res Publica Foundation began by presenting our latest report, which outlines scenarios for the European Union post-elections.
Some have argued that the upcoming elections essentially represent a decision between pro-Russian populists and pro-Western candidates associated with democratic values. However, in the entire narrative surrounding the elections, there’s a lack of reflection on the European Union project.
Polish perspective
One of the main topics was electoral mobilisation ahead of the elections. In Poland, in the autumn, Donald Tusk’s coalition won the elections because they mobilised unengaged Polish voters; the turnout ultimately reached a record-breaking 74.38%. However, a few months later, during local elections, the turnout was only 51.94%. The engagement in electoral participation did not persist.
We can expect that PiS and the Confederation will make every effort to mobilise their electorate during campaign before EP. The Confederation’s result could be surprising.
In Poland, there’s a noticeable radicalisation of the ruling coalition’s narrative regarding migration. When the EU voted on the migration pact, Poland and Hungary were the only countries against the new rules. However, during the discussion, it was pointed out that in Tusk’s narrative, border security is understood as safeguarding democracy.
The Confederation may benefit from the conflicts and inconsistencies in the narratives of Tusk and Kaczyński. The Confederation has been against the European Green Deal, border security and the blockade of Ukrainian grain imports to Poland from the very beginning. However, the narratives of both the Civic Coalition and Law and Justice have not always been consistent in these areas.
This polarisation can paradoxically work in favour of the Confederation
See the photoshoot below:
