Project: Eastern Partnership Futures: 2030

Foresight Project supported by the Visegrad Fund

24 May 2019

Eastern Partnership may be described today as one of the most successful programs of the EU. Yet, having demonstrated a transformative power of the EU on its neighbourhood, it has revealed many of the strategic deficiencies of own approach. Soon it will face discussions on 20 deliverables for 2020 but the EaP countries are exposed to unprecedented level of uncertainty because of global trends, such as: the future of liberal world order, multilateralism, the future of EU and NATO, economic cycle, impact of digital revolution, or geopolitical tectonic shifts. All these are a shared concern across Europe, and Central European and Eastern Partnership Countries, and all require directions to what the future may bring.

Thus, together with V4, Ukrainian and Belarusian partners, and with the support of the International Visegrad Fund, we decided to map out scenarios for EaP 2030. These would serve building public debate on strategy for countries, mapping out consequences of strategic directions, and creating public responsiveness to policy directions in democratic process as element of good governance. We will develop plausible scenarios for EaP focusing on different political trajectories, economical or social factors. The project includes creating a network of (young and mid-career; under 40) experts, political leaders and digital era offsprings in Ukraine, Belarus and V4 to discuss the future of the region presented in the form of a few (4-6) scenarios promoted via public events, media and social media to gain the biggest outreach among the general public and policy-makers, and to improve discussions on future of EU and the region.

#CentralEuropeanFutures: scenarios for the Eastern Partnership in 2030 is a project that will help bring together V4 experts as well as the EaP ones and gather them in a strategic-thinking workshops focused on cooperation on EU policy. The project will also deliver an informed and structured outline on strategic uncertainties regarding EU EaP policy post-2020 that resonates in this region. The outlined scenarios for countries of EaP are a method to stimulate structured and future oriented debate on EU neighbourhood with an in-depth input from V4 countries. These will also influence better understanding in EU and in EaP countries of the possible effects and consequences of given policies or its’ lack. Last but not least, the disseminated knowledge on all: the EaP strategic development options, EU policy towards EaP, and V4 input in EaP countries, will contribute to the better level of public debate and undertaken decisions.

Magda Jakubowska

Vice President and Director of Operations at the Res Publica Foundation. One of her flagship projects regarding women empowerment in security, NATO’s campaign: #WomenAreNATO, has garnered considerable international interest.


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