Analysis
Democratic Security
Moldova Story: How a Small Republic Resisted Hybrid War
5 December 2025
Beijing’s support for Russia has become indispensable to Moscow’s war effort. As the Politburo strengthens its role, Western leaders can no longer afford to view China as a neutral actor in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The wallet that keeps the Kremlin afloat
Despite a slight decline in trade caused by a drop in vehicle imports to Russia and a decrease in oil exports to China, Beijing remains a key economic lifeline for the Kremlin, with bilateral trade expected to reach 230–235 billion dollars by the end of 2025. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, China has emerged as one of the key economic lifelines for Moscow, achieving a record 245 billion dollars in bilateral trade in 2024, more than double pre-war levels. China is now Russia’s largest trading partner.
Around thirty per cent of Russia’s external trade is now settled in yuan, a dramatic shift from two per cent in 2022. The Kremlin has promoted yuan settlement as an alternative to the dollar and the euro to mitigate the impact of sanctions imposed by the West. In May 2025 Germany’s Federal Foreign Office estimated that China accounts for 80 per cent of Russia’s sanction circumventions.
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