Raising the Stakes

Either in anticipating an hardening of the Russian strategy or guided by its own desire to join the foreign policy game with the West, Minsk sharply raised the stakes through the “Wagner case”.

With the approach of the presidential election, not only is the situation inside Belarus becoming more complicated but so is Minsk’s foreign policy. Moreover, in connection with the history of the detained Russian mercenaries, Belarus’s relationship has become increasingly strained with Russia, and not only with the West.

Before considering the evolution of the Kremlin’s strategy towards Belarus, let us briefly outline how pre-election Belarus looks from Moscow, and what this means.

What decisions did the Kremlin make regarding its scenarios for Belarus when it realised that the topic of ‘Maidan’ and its harsh suppression in Belarus was sufficiently circulated, that the level of public discontent did not decrease, that the authorities had already de facto taken responsibility for everything that would happen around 9 August and that the topic of  ‘deep integration’ was becoming more and more elusive?