Analysis
Democratic Security
How Post-Orbán Hungary Could Reshape the Western Balkans
22 May 2026
If Orbán ally and opposition leader Janez Janša wins, Slovenia may pivot into the sovereigntist bloc.
In such a scenario, Slovenia, alongside Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, would strengthen a far-right alliance whose influence extends now from the Western Balkans to the European Council and the Parliament.
Heated race and even more unpleasant expectations
Slovenia holds parliamentary elections for its 90-seat National Assembly this Sunday. The vote pits the opposition Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) of former prime minister Janez Janša against the governing Freedom Movement (Gibanje Svoboda) of sitting prime minister Robert Golob. The National Assembly is elected via a proportional system that typically produces multi-party parliaments and coalition governments. The chamber nominates the prime minister rather than providing for a direct popular vote for head of government.
Janša is a three-time former prime minister who has led SDS since 1993. His governments have been marked by confrontations over media freedom, liberal democratic norms and the rule of law. A 2021 alleged policy paper, which Janša denied authoring, proposed redrawing borders in favour of greater Albania, Croatia and Serbia.
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