Babiš Wins First Round in Court

Czechs head to the first round of the presidential elections as one candidate and populist-opposition leader Babiš is pronounced “not guilty” in an EU subsidy fraud trial. The Slovak Prime Minister is trying to reconstruct a majority-backed cabinet and Polish oil refiner PKN Orlen could be probed.

This week on Visegrad Insight:

• Iván László Nagy investigates the impact, strategy and government funding of the influential far-right Twitter account, Visegrad24.
• Martin Ehl writes about what to expect in the upcoming Czech Presidential elections.
• Jan Farfal analyses the reach and influence of the Alpbach Forum.
• Merili Arjakas looks into the prospects for Baltic energy independence.

EU/REGIONAL

• EU leaders condemned the storming of government buildings in Brasilia. The assault drew immediate worldwide comparison to the attack on the US Capitol building by Trump supporters. EU leaders were expressing support to democratic standards and Brazil’s old new president Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva.
• Sweden has taken over the presidency of the Council of the European Union. Their main priorities are: security, competitiveness, green and energy transitions, democratic values and the rule of law.
• Meta ads deemed illegal under EU law. Meta will now be prohibited from using personal data for advertisement, leading to a major blow to its business model in Europe. The European Data Protection Board has rejected the Irish DPC and Meta’s bypass of the GDPR based on nyob complaints against Facebook and Instagram.
• During the Society & Defence Conference in Sweden, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said that the country will contribute with Gripen fighter aircraft with quick reaction alert for Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia through NATO:s Baltic Air Policing.

The West steps up weapons delivery

UKRAINE

• The West is starting to deliver heavily armoured vehicles to Ukraine: France has promised to deliver AMX-10 RCs, Germany will deliver Marders and the US will deliver Bradleys.
• According to Ukraine’s intelligence, the Kremlin plans to mobilise up to half a million conscripts. Andriy Cherniak of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense told Politico that this mobilisation wave would exceed the one from autumn.
• Ukraine considers Putin’s offer of ceasefire a ploy. Putin instructed to introduce a ceasefire along the entire line of contact between the parties in Ukraine.
• Ukraine is ranked as the 15th strongest army in the world in the annual Global Firepower 2023 Military Strength Ranking. In last year’s index, Ukraine’s army was ranked 22nd.
• Russia’s claims of killing 600 Ukrainian soldiers in Kramatorsk as a response after Ukraine struck a barrack with 400 Russian servicemen is dismissed by Ukrainian authorities as Kremlin propaganda. 

Babiš pronounced “not guilty” in a major blow to anti-corruption efforts and PKN Orlen to be probed for price fixing

CZECH REPUBLIC

• Verdict in the trial with ex-premier Andrej Babiš. The presiding judge pronounced Babiš and ex-manager at Agrofert conglomerate Jana Nagyová “not guilty” on Monday morning. Presidential candidate Andrej Babiš has been on trial over fraud involving a 2 million euro subsidy. Billionaire Babiš is accused of fraudulently using EU subsidies to construct the Čapí hnízdo conference centre near Prague by concealing its ties to his Agrofert conglomerate. State prosecutor Jaroslav Šaroch has demanded a three-year conditional sentence for Babiš and half a million euro fine. Critics view it as a mild sentence if Babiš were convicted.
• The first round of the Czech Presidential elections will take place on Friday and Saturday, 13-14 January. The latest polls place three favourites, former NATO chairman of military command Petr Pavel, populist opposition leader Andrej Babiš and former president of Mendel University Danueš Nerudová neck and neck. (Read more here.)
• Presidential candidate and labour unions leader Josef Středula stepped down in the middle of the televised super debate and endorsed Danuše Nerudová. 
• Outgoing Czech President Milos Zeman hinted at the possibility of a pre-emptive appointment of the head of the constitutional court. Zeman told the radio station Frekvence 1 that there is no legal obstacle preventing him from appointing a new head of the constitutional court before he leaves office in March, even though the current head’s term expires only in August. 

HUNGARY

• The Albanian branches of Antenna Hungaria merged. Mobile services provider ONE Telecommunications merged with ALBtelecom under ONE Albania. The majority owner is Hungarian 4iG which was set up by Viktor Orbán’s ally Lorinc Meszáros and grew from a small IT company into a regional player.  
• Hungary issued 4.25 billion of FX bonds, raising concerns that it could exceed the 30 per cent threshold. Government spokespeople suggested it was an indication of confidence in the economy.

POLAND