Asylum Budapest: Political Refugees and Gas Addicts

Viktor Orbán has offered political asylum to Marcin Romanowski, a former justice minister and PiS loyalist charged with fraud. In doing so, he flips the narrative and implies it is Poland, not Hungary, that has issues with the rule of law.

Orbán is also making radical moves to keep Russian gas flowing via Ukraine, because his melting political capital at home, like Robert Fico’s, depends on cheap energy. With 2025 in sight, Orbán and Fico’s desperate actions position them as leading DIMI actors, damaging Europe in pursuit of their own interests.

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• Eva Mihočková warns that Slovakia’s Fico government is echoing Viktor Orbán’s regime – a threat to both democracy and life along the Danube.

Slovakia and Hungary defy energy ministers to keep Russian gas flowing beyond 1 January 2025 – as Fico meets Putin in Moscow

GLOBAL/REGIONAL

• EU energy ministers met on 16 December to tackle energy affordability and competition – amidst the expiring gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and the bloc’s attempt to phase out reliance on fossil fuels from Moscow.
• The EU has long argued that member countries still importing Russian gas via the Ukraine route can do without the supplies. Nevertheless, Slovakia and Hungary have continued negotiations to keep gas flowing – with all the latest in the V4 section.

• Top diplomat Kaja Kallas also summoned FMs to her first FAC on 16 December, where ministers adopted the EU’s first set of measures hitting Russia for its disinformation operations and other hybrid activities. The 15th sanctions package also targeted third countries like Belarus in order to address circumvention issues.

• The EU is reportedly assessing the legal and financial implications of confiscating Russia’s sanctioned central bank assets for use by Ukraine.
• Some countries want to harness frozen assets more completely, but other key governments remain skittish. We have seen this in the past between Poland and Germany, and might recall German Chancellor Olaf Scholz telling President Andrzej Duda: ‘You don’t understand how [the use of €260 billion worth of Russian assets] would affect the stability of our financial markets…You don’t even use the euro!’

• Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili delivered a speech in the European Parliament (EP) on 18 December that was met by a standing ovation – imploring lawmakers to ‘use your leverage and act’ by exerting pressure on Georgian Dream (GD) authorities and supporting calls for new elections.
• Aside from the Baltic states, however, few countries have shown such leverage. Instead, Hungary and Slovakia blocked sanctions on GD, meaning the best the EU can do for now is a limited measure targeting diplomats’ visas.
• In response, the International Chamber of Commerce in Georgia has suspended its relationship with the Hungarian and Slovak Embassies – because ‘ICC-Georgia will not cooperate with any country that undermines the interests of Georgia and contributes to ruining the future of the Georgian people’.
• The pro-Western Zourabichvili is meant to leave office on 29 December and pass the baton to Mikheil Kavelashvili, a government loyalist, but she doesn’t recognise Kavelashvili as her legitimate successor given the disputed parliamentary election.

• The EU opened an investigation into TikTok over suspicions it didn’t do enough to stop fake accounts and foreign powers from interfering with last month’s Romanian presidential election – more on this in the Romania section.
• It remains to be seen how effective the investigation will be. In the US, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew met with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago on the same day the social media firm asked the Supreme Court to intervene in the fight over its federal ban.

• The EP approved changes establishing two new standing committees and two special committees last week – on Security and Defence, Public Health, European Democracy Shield and Housing Crisis respectively.
• They are set to start their work at the end of January 2025, following proposals by Parliament President Roberta Metsola and the leaders of political groups, aiming to align Parliament’s priorities with citizen concerns and the results of EU elections.

Tusk promises to accelerate Ukrainian accession – but pours cold water on peacekeeping mission and extent of Polish aid

UKRAINE