1K Days of War: Poland Rallies Leaders to Revamp European Security 

Poland has summoned European leaders to Warsaw on 19 November, for the 1000th day of Russia’s War on Ukraine. This will provide the context for what Warsaw hopes will be a reset in European decision-making – elevating Poland’s place at the table ahead of its European Council Presidency and the start of the Donald Trump administration.

Upcoming on Visegrad Insight:

• Event: How Will Indo-Pacific Tensions Impact Central and Eastern Europe? On 21 Nov at 3 PM Click here to register
• Matej Šimalčík examines how seemingly distant Indo-Pacific conflicts could have direct consequences on Central Europe’s security and prosperity.
• Ivan Us analyses the impact of winter refugees after Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
• Philipp Friz breaks down how the ‘Defence of Democracy’ package can be used to counter foreign influence

Tusk positions Poland at the centre of NATO and EU policy – in preparation for its EUCO Presidency and Trump’s inauguration

GLOBAL/REGIONAL

• The diplomatic heads of Poland, France, Germany (and likely Italy and the UK) are set to descend on Warsaw on 19 November – the thousandth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the first meeting Polish PM Donald Tusk said he would organise as the EU shapes its response to Donald Trump’s election victory.
• The meeting will also be a prelude to the reorganisation of the EU during the Polish European Council (EUCO) Presidency – according to Rzeczpospolita – which starts three weeks before Trump’s inauguration on 20 January.
• As Tusk said himself on 13 November after a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Poland is becoming the foundation of NATO policy due to its geographical location and defence spending.
• EU Leaders want to address Europe’s place in the world and reassess the bloc’s relationship with the US, and will reportedly also do so over lunch at a summit in Brussels on 19 December – according to Politico.

• Conservative chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz has said he’s open to reforming Germany’s strict borrowing limits as long as additional debt-financed spending is used for investment – in what would be a huge win for Tusk, who has long criticised Berlin for its refusal to consider defence bonds and competing initiatives for military procurement.
• The remarks represent a departure from the traditional stance of the Christian Democrat-led bloc, which has a clear lead in the polls. The leaders of Germany’s major parties have agreed to hold a federal election on 23 February 2025, following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s troubled three-party coalition last week.

• Brussels plans to change its spending rules on cohesion funds to potentially redirect tens of billions of euros to defence – according to the Financial Times.
• Only 5% of the €400 billion allocated from 2021 to 2027 to reduce economic disparities and promote development across member countries has been spent. This means EU capitals will be given more flexibility to spend the funds on defence – although a ban on using the money to purchase weapons/ammunition will remain.

• The European Commission (EC) has also approved funding for five cross-border projects to support more coordinated and efficient defence procurement among EU Member States – if you want peace, prepare for war.
• Each of the 5 selected projects will receive €60 million, representing a total amount of €300 million funding, and a combined procurement value exceeding €11 billion.

• KO MEP Andrzej Halicki announced on 16 November that various agreements had been reached on the EU budget for 2025 – including several significant wins for Poland: Border security (€600 million); Defence (€250 million); Regional Development (€210 million); Democratic Security (€230 million); Health (600 million).

• EU High Representative nominee Kaja Kallas said the bloc should use the $300 billion of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction during her commissioner hearing – among several interesting comments:
  • EU enlargement, particularly in the Western Balkans, is a vital geostrategic investment;
  • Enlargement will remain merit-based and she will work closely with Slovenia Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos;
  • No one knows what Trump will do in Ukraine, but isolationism has never worked for the US;
  • EU sanctions against Russia should become indefinite until the 27 member states opt to lift them.
• MEPs gave a provisional green light to 19 out of Ursula von der Leyen’s 26 commissioners, but Hungary’s Olivér Várhelyi and all six executive VPs await approval – with a vote on all of the nominees scheduled for 27 November.

• The EU is working on a new package of sanctions that would target the shadow fleet of tankers Russia is using to get oil to market, as well as individuals involved in the trade.
• Ideally, it would be approved before the end of the year, but unanimous approval by the 27 member states has become difficult due to Hungary’s frequent vetoes.

• Regulators have fined Meta for €798 million in the US tech giant‘s first-ever penalty for EU antitrust violations. The company was ordered to stop tying its classified-ads service to Facebook’s sprawling social media platform and refrain from imposing unfair trading conditions on rival second-hand goods platforms.

Biden lifts ban on Ukraine using US weapons for deep strikes on Russian territory – but talk of peace negotiations on the rise

UKRAINE