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Event, online: Europe’s Defence Dilemma in the Trump Era
3 April 2025
On 1 April, Visegrad Insight hosted a closed-door breakfast discussing potential scenarios for the Presidential Election results.
The presidential elections in Poland are just around the corner, scheduled for 18 May. During our Visegrad Insight Breakfast, we discussed the profiles of the three current frontrunners: Rafał Trzaskowski (Civic Coalition), Karol Nawrocki (Law and Justice – PiS) and Sławomir Mentzen (Konfederacja).
In the defence and security sphere, all leading candidates emphasise strong ties with the US and NATO, though financing strategies differ. Rafał Trzaskowski backs increasing defence spending to 5% of GDP; Karol Nawrocki may lean into nationalist rhetoric, while Sławomir Mentzen prioritises economic growth over military expansion.
Polls suggest that it may not be the PiS candidate who reaches the second round, but rather Mentzen, whose support has steadily grown. His campaign combines targeted social media messaging with a high volume of in-person events across Poland. He performs especially well on TikTok, where his content resonates with younger voters.
Trzaskowski is widely expected to advance to the second round. His key challenge will be winning over Mentzen’s voters, particularly as all top candidates have taken a tougher line on immigration – a theme Mentzen has used to build his base.
At the same time, the Civic Coalition’s candidate may struggle to mobilise women voters. In 2023, a record number of women supported Donald Tusk’s coalition, driven by hopes of liberalising abortion laws. Disappointment over the government’s inaction on this issue may now dampen enthusiasm for its presidential contender.
