Thronging with Uncertainty

How Do We Manage Systems We Don't Understand?

30 January 2020

Matej Kandrík

Marcin Król Fellow

Our ability to predict the consequences of complex processes is diminishing. How can Central Europe best prepare for the future? By not substituting short-term benefits for long-term successes, actively participating in the life of your community, and having the courage to make radical decisions and changes.

In 2019, we witnessed changes confirming the shift from cooperative multilateralism to competitive multipolarity. In other words, an increasing number of states are choosing a more assertive and confrontational approach: they prefer direct bilateral diplomacy between states over a willingness to address their issues on international platforms.

We can see this clearly in foreign policy steps of Turkey, in the German approach to the Nord Stream 2 and Trump’s foreign policy openly working according to the very same logic. Such an approach suits strong states which can more easily enforce more favourable terms for themselves, especially if they outweigh their “partner” several times in a bilateral relationship.

Having the political and economic weight of the Visegrad Group in mind, this is hardly the desired development. Moreover, such development is increasing the unpredictability of actions and responses by individual actors.


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Matej Kandrík

Marcin Król Fellow

Matej Kandrík is a Marcin Król Fellow 2022/2023 and a cofounder of Adapt Institute and a PhD candidate in Political Science with a specialisation in Security and Strategic Studies at Masaryk University in Brno, Czechia. In 2016 he did a research stay at the National Defence University of Poland. He collaborated as a research fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States and the International Republican Institute as a Transatlantic Initiative fellow. Currently, he is participating in CEU Democratic Institute Leadership Academy. His research interests include comprehensive defence, paramilitarism in Central Eastern Europe and strategic communication.


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