The Analyst’s Remorse and the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict

A summary of the key developments in the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict and a critique of their coverage

1 March 2024

Matej Kandrík

Marcin Król Fellow

The War in Ukraine is not lost, but neither is it going well. In this pivotal moment after two years of conflict, it is crucial to reflect upon the significant oversights committed by the analytical, expert and journalistic communities in their coverage of the war. Only in this way can the EU fully comprehend the developing nature of the conflict and effectively plan its defence of Ukraine for years to come.

To err is inherently human, yet the essence of our character lies in our response to errors. Embracing self-critique is hardly enjoyable, but it’s fundamental for learning and denotes intellectual integrity. It also serves as a vital feedback mechanism for us as analysts.

Lacking the capacity or readiness to amend our clear misjudgements condemns us to a cycle of repetition, which runs in contrast against the very essence of analytical thinking – a process that involves meticulous information assessment and source evaluation, among other methods.

This text is a reflective examination and critique of the significant oversights committed by the analytical, expert and journalistic communities in their coverage of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Their/our influence is not insignificant, and thus, accountability is imperative.

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Matej Kandrík

Marcin Król Fellow

Matej Kandrík is a Marcin Król Fellow 2022/2023 and a cofounder of Adapt Institute and a PhD candidate in Political Science with a specialisation in Security and Strategic Studies at Masaryk University in Brno, Czechia. In 2016 he did a research stay at the National Defence University of Poland. He collaborated as a research fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States and the International Republican Institute as a Transatlantic Initiative fellow. Currently, he is participating in CEU Democratic Institute Leadership Academy. His research interests include comprehensive defence, paramilitarism in Central Eastern Europe and strategic communication.

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