Romania’s Presidential Surprise: Far-Right Georgescu or Pro-EU Lasconi?

Far-right, pro-Russia candidate Călin Georgescu won a shock victory in Romanian presidential elections on 24 November, garnering 23% support despite running as an independent and campaigning largely on TikTok. The spotlight is now on centre-right Elena Lasconi, who came second with 19%, and whether she can win a run-off on 8 December.

Poland plans next European security summit in Sweden – with Weimar+ warning of ‘unprecedented’ challenges 

GLOBAL/REGIONAL

• FMs gathered on 18 November to discuss intelligence that shows a Chinese factory making military drones for Russia to use in its war against Ukraine.
• If the reports are confirmed and it turns out Beijing was aware of the firm’s activities, consequences will arise from the obvious breaking of neutrality.
• The Council also decided to widen restrictive measures on Iran’s military support to Russia – especially the use of vessels and ports for the transfer of Iranian-made Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, missiles and related technologies and components.

• A vast shadow fleet of ageing, uninsured tankers is helping billions of dollars of sanctioned Iranian oil reach China, despite claims Beijing has not imported oil from Tehran in two years – according to a Bloomberg analysis.

• FMs from Poland, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK issued a joint declaration to tackle ‘unprecedented’ security challenges while in Warsaw, after Putin updated the Kremlin’s nuclear doctrine – more on this in the Ukraine section.
• PM Donald Tusk warned that a global conflict ‘is serious and real’ and that the war in Ukraine has entered a ‘decisive stage’. French President Emmanuel Macron told Putin to climb down from making nuclear threats, while his FM Jean-Noël Barrot said that there should be no ‘red lines’ when it comes to support for Ukraine.
• Another summit is expected to take place in Sweden this week, including the Scandinavian countries, the Baltics and Poland.

• The 15 largest European NATO members will need to nearly double their annual military expenditure to $720 billion in order to bolster capacity against Russia and offset the possibility of less US support under Donald Trump – according to a Bloomberg Intelligence report published last week.
• The extra spend would cover battle tanks, artillery and infantry fighting vehicles for ground forces, as well as support aircraft such as tankers, cargo and sub-hunters. However, the report says, rearmament at this scale could take more than a decade.

• The Bundeswehr has drafted a 1,000 page ‘Operations Plan Deutschland’ training guide, laying out how to Russia-proof Germany, what infrastructure would need extra protection if Russia invades on the eastern flank, and how Germany could become a staging ground for tens or even hundreds of thousands of soldiers.

• France and Poland are reportedly teaming up to prevent a trade deal between the EU and Latin America’s Mercosur – with agriculture ministers from the two nations planning to meet in Warsaw to discuss their objections to the pact.
• Last week, farmers blocked Poland’s Medyka border crossing with Ukraine on Saturday in protest over the trade deal, which they say will reduce competitiveness, and the decision by the Polish government to increase the rate of agricultural tax.

• President Salome Zourabichvili criticised the Georgian Interior Ministry’s ‘Russian style of governance’ after the latter warned that ‘appropriate measures will be taken’ if protestors block access to parliament during the demonstration scheduled for 25 November.
• Outgoing Lithuanian FM Gabrielius Landsbergis said last week that Georgia proves Europe is ‘looking more inward’ – just like America: ‘Remember 10 years ago? We would go to Tbilisi, wave the EU flag. Now we’re like, ‘It happened, c’est la vie.”
• ‘Everywhere you look, the national debate is prevailing over everything else. The times when Europe would produce a policy like Eastern Partnership are long gone,’ Landsbergis said.

Majority of Ukrainians now support peace negotiations – as Moscow looks to escalate conflict

UKRAINE

• Kyiv used long-range US and British missiles to hit Russian targets for the first time last week – including an ammunition depot near Bryansk and a strike on Kursk (in which a North Korean general was reportedly injured.)
• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy unveiled a ‘resilience plan‘ to parliament on 19 November, aimed at bolstering the country’s defences and producing at least 30,000 long-range drones and 3,000 cruise missiles next year.
• Ukraine’s parliament also approved the 2025 state budget, which includes a record $53.7 billion, or 26% of GDP, dedicated to defence and security.

• In response, Russia launched a new kind of intercontinental ballistic missile at the city of Dnipro, according to Zelenskyy – who said the country had been targeted by nearly 500 drones last week, as well as more than 20 missiles, and complained that Russia was using Ukraine as ‘a testing ground’ for its munitions.
• Russia reportedly warned the US about its ‘Oreshnik’ missile strike 30 minutes prior, via nuclear risk-reduction channels. The Ukraine-NATO Council will convene on 26 November to address Russia’s use of experimental ballistic missiles.
• Vladimir Putin also signed a revised national nuclear doctrine on 19 November, expanding the conditions under which Moscow may use its nuclear weapons and making it easier to justify retaliation against a NATO member for helping Ukraine.
• In addition, Russia staged ‘a massive information-psychological attack’ against Ukraine by spreading a fake warning, purportedly from Ukrainian military intelligence, about an imminent mass air attack, Kyiv’s top spy agency said on 20 November.

• Russia‘s armed forces have recruited hundreds of Yemeni men to fight in Ukraine, brought by a shadowy trafficking operation that highlights the growing links between Moscow and the Houthi rebel group – according to the Financial Times.
• Yemeni recruits were reportedly promised high salaried employment and Russian citizenship, before being forcibly inducted into the Russian army and sent to the front.

• Amid all of this escalation, Ukraine has lost 40% of the land it had seized in the Kursk region of Russia, according to a senior Ukrainian military official. Zelenskyy has said the Russian goal is to push Ukrainian troops out of the area by 20 January.
• Data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows that Russia has gained almost six times as much territory in 2024 as it did in 2023, and is advancing towards key Ukrainian logistical hubs in the eastern Donbas region.

• 52% of Ukrainians are now in favour of negotiating peace with Russia as soon as possible, up from 26% in 2022 – according to a Gallup survey. 52% of those open to peace talks are also willing to consider territorial concessions.
• Putin is ‘open to discussing a Ukraine cease-fire deal with Donald Trump‘ but would insist that Moscow gets to keep the territory it has captured and that Ukraine does not join NATO – Reuters reported, citing five well-placed sources.
• Zelenskyy told Fox News that Kyiv ‘cannot legally acknowledge any occupied territory of Ukraine as Russian,’ but admitted that Crimea would have to be retrieved through diplomacy because he could not permit the human losses otherwise required.

• European nations launched the ‘Northern Group-Ukraine’ defence cooperation format, made up of Poland, Germany, the UK, Netherlands, Nordics and the Baltics.

• Security will also be the central policy theme when Poland takes the EUCO Presidency on 1 January, Undersecretary of State for EU Affairs Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka said last week – including external and military, energy, economic, food and climate, health and information security.
• Sources also emphasised that the EU will move ahead ‘swiftly’ with an initial phase of accession talks for Ukraine and Moldova during the first half of 2025.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz received much criticism after making clear he wasn’t going to change position on Ukraine using long-range missiles.
• This put Scholz at odds with Poland, France and the UK, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy told MEPs in a video address that ‘While some leaders think about some elections, Putin is focused on winning this war.’

• Hungary slammed the US decision to allow Ukraine to use American-supplied long-range missiles, with FM Péter Szijjártó calling it ‘extremely dangerous.’
• Slovak PM Robert Fico echoed the sentiment, claiming that it ‘destroys any hope of initiating peace talks and ending the mutual slaughter of Slavs in Ukraine.’

• Former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen urged the US to prioritise Ukraine over Taiwan for now – as Kyiv needs weapons more urgently. ‘A Ukrainian victory will serve as the most effective deterrent to future aggression,’ Ing-wen explained.

• The Biden administration submitted a proposal to Congress to cancel half of Ukraine’s aid debt – around $4.65 billion. This stems from a $10 billion conditional loan provided to Ukraine in April 2024, as part of a $61 billion security aid package.
• It will also send anti-personnel mines to Ukraine for the first time, in an attempt to reinforce Ukraine’s east, where Russian forces have been making steady progress.

KO and PiS select their presidential candidates: Trzaskowski vs Nawrocki

CZECHIA

• Russian gas imports to Czechia spiked in November, with more than 95% of the country‘s gas flowing into the country via Slovakia – according to the Net4Gas pipeline operator. Although price data on the gas mix are unavailable, energy analysts say gas imported via the Slovak route is largely of Russian origin.
• In response, PM Petr Fiala said that traders temporarily using cheaper gas from Russia ‘does not make me worried at all,’ praising that Czechia has opened other routes for gas imports and reduced its near complete dependency on Russian gas.
• The deputy chairman of the state-owned pipeline company MERO said last week that Czechia will end consumption of Russian oil in July 2025 after a pipeline upgrade.

• Fiala was criticised for his comments on Russian gas – and for saying that he would bring Czech wages to German levels if re-elected during a TV debate. 
• Liberal critics view the latter promise as unrealistic, and it has sparked a wider discussion about whether Fiala and his team have a realistic assessment of the social and political situation in the country – ahead of national elections next year.

• Fiala also faced criticism for a draft bill which would require Russian nationals to renounce their citizenship when applying for the Czech one. 
• The government-backed bill aims to implement better screening of Russians obtaining Czech citizenship, but liberal critics warn it could also expose Russians fleeing the Kremlin regime to blackmail from Moscow authorities. Some 40,000 Russian nationals are estimated to be living in Czechia for the long term.

• On 19 November, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled that Czechia and Poland violated EU law by preventing EU nationals from joining their political parties, stressing that all EU citizens must have equal access to their electoral rights.

• The Head of the Czech Counterintelligence (BIS), General Michal Koudelka, officially blamed Russia for the wave of bomb threats at schools in both Czechia and Slovakia in recent months. 

• The Ministry of Defence confirmed that Czechia has sent €300 million worth of military material to Ukraine since 2022 – including eight aircraft, 62 tanks, 131 armoured vehicles, 26 chemical vehicles and 16 vehicles of anti-aircraft defence systems.

HUNGARY