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Politics
‘Grand Budapest’ Turns to Grand Chaos – QUICK TAKE
30 January 2025
Although quickly stamped out, a rebellion by one-time ally Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries reveals the fragility of Vladimir Putin’s hold on power and shows again that his decision to launch the war on Ukraine set Russia on a downward spiral.
Upcoming on Visegrad Insight:
- Iván László Nagy interviews Cas Mudde about the state of populism in Central and Eastern Europe.
- Max Sheets finds ideological ties between Poland’s recent “Lex Tusk” law and the American McCarthyism of 1950s.
EU/REGIONAL
- Prigozhin’s exile in Belarus shows Putin’s fear of dealing harshly with the Wagner commander and his followers as Russia lacks soldiers to resist Ukraine’s counter-offensive and maintain order at home.
- Prigozhin’s exit represents a victory of sorts for the regular army’s top brass and removes duality of command in Ukraine operations.
- Several analysts expect this week’s events to be the beginning of an end for Putin and the war.
- Senior G7 officials, including US National Security adviser Jake Sullivan, met with top representatives of the “Global South” (India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and Saudi Arabia) in Copenhagen to over the weekend to discuss a peace settlement proposed by President Zelenskyy months ago, diplomatic sources told Politico. China declined to participate.
- The focus is now on Belarus – President Lukashenka played a part in ending the rebellion and is now playing host to Prigozhin, demonstrating his usefulness to Putin. The opposition used the Wagner mutiny to remind Belarussian military that they should not be directly drawn into the war.
- Two U.S. senators warned Russia it faced harsh military consequences if it used nuclear weapons to salvage its stumbling war on Ukraine. The warning came as the U.S. intelligence agencies became aware that Prigozhin could launch a mutiny. The statement also follows reports Russia has mined the Zaporozhnya power station.
- Ukraine failed to obtain a speedy access to international reconstruction funds at a donor’s conference in London. Absence of meaningful war insurance schemes is a key obstacle for the private sector despite multibiliondollar pledges from donors, including over 50 billion euros from the EU.
- The EU imposed new sanctions on Russia and those seeking to evade them.
- Europe has been warming up at twice the pace of global average since the 1980s, World Meteorological Organisation said in a report.
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