Prague’s Election Looms Large Over Central Europe’s Security Fate

As Czech voters head to the polls this weekend, the stakes for regional security couldn’t be higher.

With Russia’s war in Ukraine grinding on and Kremlin subversion tactics rippling across NATO allies – from disinformation campaigns to energy blackmail – Czechia’s parliamentary elections could heavily influence Central Europe’s defence posture. Andrej Babiš’s populist ANO party, poised for a commanding lead, might usher in a minority government propped up by radical fringes, potentially diluting Prague’s staunch pro-Ukraine stance and NATO commitments. Yet amid the unknowns– will Babiš pivot towards Brussels-sceptic allies like Viktor Orbán, or hedge with pragmatism?

Visegrad Insight’s State of Czechia 2025 debate series this week cut through the fog. Convening leading experts from think tanks, media and diplomacy, our special online sessions mapped out post-election scenarios, spotlighting solutions to safeguard Europe’s freedom and security. From defence innovation to resilience of civil society against hybrid threats, the discussions underscored Prague’s pivotal role in countering Moscow’s aggression while urging sustained transatlantic unity.

Foreign affairs debate on a potential Babiš-led shift

In Wednesday’s session, moderated by Albin Sybera of Visegrad Insight, panellists dissected how a Babiš victory could fracture Czech foreign policy, risking a Visegrad realignment towards Euroscepticism and diluted Ukraine support. Kateřina Šafaříková, head of OP-EDs desk at Seznam Zprávy, warned of a fractured coalition landscape where ANO might court mainstream defectors to avoid radical entanglements, but highlighted threats to public media and NGOs from opposition rhetoric.