Analysis
Democratic Security
How Post-Orbán Hungary Could Reshape the Western Balkans
22 May 2026
Hungary and Slovakia’s populist leaders are turning energy dependence into political capital, posing a greater threat to the EU’s 2027 Russian fossil fuel phase-out plan than infrastructure or market readiness.
After the EU announced its 2027 Russian energy phase-out plan in May, populist leaders Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico swiftly criticised the move, arguing it would pose significant economic challenges for Hungary and Slovakia.
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Fico and Orbán’s criticisms are refuted by a recently released report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the Centre for the Study of Democracy (CSD). The report concludes that Hungary and Slovakia have exploited the EU exemption for Russian crude pipeline imports. Despite having viable paths to decoupling from Russian crude oil, Hungary and Slovakia have done little towards a phase-out plan.
The 2027 EU phase-out plan was also met with criticism from Belgium and France, two major importers of Russian LNG in the EU. Such opposition from key member states questions whether the EU has enough political capital to push ahead with the phase-out plan.
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