Orbán’s Failing Expectations Game – COMMENTARY

Looking at the days ahead, three pivotal political developments are exposing the precarious art of expectation management across Europe.

Top of our list starts with Viktor Orbán’s much-trumpeted Washington triumph, then Brussels’ bold enlargement pronouncements, while the democratic security fans’ nail-biter will, in truth, be the impending announcement of the European Democracy Shield.

Each carries the veneer of breakthrough – permanent energy exemptions, a bulwark against foreign malign operations, and new members by 2030 – yet all three policy narratives teeter on the edge of disillusionment. With Hungary barreling towards elections in five months, where Fidesz lags behind Péter Magyar’s Tisza by as much as 10 percentage points, the domestic fallout could be seismic for Orbán if he believes in his success more than his voters do. Meanwhile, the European Commission is peddling a ‘too good to be true’ narrative, ripe for exploitation by political rivals at home and abroad in a high-stakes game of expectations.

Russian gas and oil for Hungary. Forever or never

Viktor Orbán jetted back from the White House last week, where his team had held technical-level meetings with Trump’s entourage, brandishing what he portrayed as a message of triumph. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó trumpeted on X a ‘full and unlimited exemption from sanctions on oil and gas,’ while state-controlled media splashed images of Orbán seated comfortably between the US President and Vice-President – as an equal.