Law and Justice Election Fraud: What Next From CEE’s Civil Society Oppressors?

Poland’s Law and Justice Party is set to lose tens of millions of euros for improper use of campaign funds. At the same time, Viktor Orbán plans to change election rules in Hungary and Robert Fico continues to undermine anti-corruption and decision-making processes in Slovakia. The question now is not just how PiS will react, but how far-right nationalists across CEE will look to undermine the region’s civic space and democratic participation.

CEE leaders eye top jobs and portfolios as commissioners’ deadline passes

GLOBAL/Regional

• With the passing of the 31 August comes a full list of the CEE’s prospective commissioners: 

• • Bulgaria: Ekaterina Zaharieva and Julian Popov
  • Croatia: Dubravka Šuica
  • Czechia: Jozef Síkela
  • Estonia: Kaja Kallas
  • Hungary: Olivér Várhelyi
  • Latvia: Valdis Dombrovskis
  • Lithuania: Andrius Kubilius
  • Poland: Piotr Serafin
  • Romania: Victor Negrescu
  • Slovakia: Maroš Šefčovič
  • Slovenia: Tomaž Vesel

• As you may have noticed, CEE nations have put forward only two(!) female commissioners, joining the rest of the EU in flatly ignoring Ursula von der Leyen’s request that each state nominate a man and a woman for her 26-person team.

• Tusk’s right-hand-man Piotr Serafin is rumoured to be a frontrunner for the hotly-contested budget portfolio alongside Italy’s Raffaelle Fitto.
• Since competitiveness and defence are top priorities in von der Leyen’s political guidelines, budget, internal market and industry portfolios are particularly valuable – and CEE nations have chosen their nominees with a desire to get in on the action.
• Serafin is a smooth operator and seasoned Brussels insider; Tomaž Vesel is an expert in public procurement and budget administration; Jozef Síkela has spent his whole career in the banking sector; etc.
• Similarly, Bulgaria’s We Continue the Change Party has nominated Julian Popov, until recently the minister of environment and water, with the aim of winning the sought-after energy portfolio – a prospect which has reportedly been unofficially supported by France, as Bulgaria would likely support its pro-nuclear position.
• There will now also be three CEE diplomats – according to a new structure being introduced – including Maroš Šefčovič, Valdis Dombrovskis and Kaja Kallas.
• ‘Kallas forms the link between Poland, the Baltic basin and the Nordics – Denmark, Sweden, Finland,’ said our Editor-in-Chief Wojciech Przybylski to Politico. ‘From a Central European perspective, she is the best we could imagine.’

• Brussels is set to push EU member states towards an overhaul of its €1.2 trillion common budget, which would tie payments to economic reforms rather than automatically compensating poorer countries.
• One of the most contentious changes will be to revamp rules for so-called cohesion funds, which distribute tens of billions of euros a year to close the economic gap between richer and poorer parts of the EU.
• These poorer countries are likely to oppose any moves that they see as potentially limiting their payouts – and Hungary, Slovakia and the Baltic states are the top five net recipients of cohesion funds as a percentage of national income.
• This is also why some richer countries are allegedly weary of handing control of the EU’s budget portfolio to Serafin and so a net beneficiary such as Poland.

• Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was released from custody on a €5 million bail last week after being arrested by French police as part of an inquiry into fraud, drug trafficking, organised crime, promotion of terrorism and cyber-bullying taking place on the platform.
• The app, accessed by nearly a billion people globally, is used by more than 70% of Ukrainians – according to a survey by USAID/Internews from November 2023.
• It plays an important informational role in the war – Telegram is often the first place where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy shares his daily video addresses – but many channels are also designed to sow discord and disinformation.
• This is the case across CEE: Slovak Interior Minister Šutaj Eštok, for example, has started his own Telegram channel, promoted through paid advertising on pro-Russian websites like Hlavné správy or Hlavný denník – media websites which were previously blocked by the state for spreading hoaxes and pro-Russian propaganda but have become a significant communication platform for Fico’s government.

• Georgian PM Irakli Kobakhidze last week vowed to outlaw the entire parliamentary opposition if his Georgian Dream Party wins the October elections – you can read more about how it is preparing for the elections here.
• In response, EU foreign affairs spokesperson Peter Stano said that Brussels is ‘ready to react’ if Kobakhidze’s government proceeds with the plan and its pivoting towards closer ties with Moscow: ‘The current course of action jeopardises Georgia’s EU path, de facto leading to a halt of the accession process.’

• Armenia and Azerbaijan have confirmed that a long-awaited agreement to bring peace to the South Caucasus after decades of conflict is close to finalisation.
• In a press conference on 31 August, Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan announced that his government has made a formal offer to Azerbaijan to sign a peace treaty: ‘We have 17 articles in the latest draft of the peace treaty. Thirteen of them, including the preamble, are fully agreed on,’ Pashinyan said.

Tusk warns Poland will block Ukraine’s EU integration should historical issues remain unresolved

UKRAINE

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy continued to pressure the US to let Kyiv strike military targets deep inside Russian territory during his visit to Washington last week.
• However, Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder made clear that ‘when it comes to long-range attacks, deep attacks on Russia, our policy has not changed.’
• Despite Vladimir Putin reiterating that he is no longer interested in a diplomatic resolution, the Ukrainian President also presented his plan to end (or rather win) the war with Russia to POTUS Joe Biden, reportedly including four (very general) steps:
  • Continue Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk region;
  • Ensure ‘security architecture’ – presumably integration into the EU and NATO;
  • Receive a ‘powerful package’ – presumably more weapons;
  • Advance an economic component – presumably more sanctions.

• Meanwhile, Ukrainian FM Dmytro Kuleba advocated for the same cause at the EU‘s Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) on 29-30 August – the summit which was initially supposed to be hosted in Budapest.
• Josep Borrell indicated that discussions were held about potentially lifting restrictions on weapons supplied to Ukraine, but that no agreement had yet been reached. The decision remains at the discretion of individual EU member states.
• Significant support came from Lithuanian DM Laurynas Kasčiūnas, who said at a meeting of EU defence ministers that ‘the actions of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region [have] changed the course of the war and exposed the vulnerability of the Russian army. It is obvious that the Ukrainians know how to effectively fight the aggressor forces.’

• Kuleba also asked neighbouring countries, specifically Poland, to share their air defence systems: ‘We are talking about planes [not only] flying in Polish air space but being capable of intercepting Russian missiles in Ukrainian airspace.’
• ‘I don’t question the willingness of Poland to build up defensive mechanisms, [but] they cannot do it on their own. We need partners to support them on this,’ the FM added.

• Polish PM Donald Tusk criticised statements made by Kuleba regarding Operation Vistula and stated that Ukraine’s path to EU membership would be blocked without resolving such contentious historical issues – issues which have long been used by Russian disinformers to drive a wedge between Kyiv and Warsaw.
• Speaking at the Polish Future Campus with FM Radosław Sikorski, Kuleba controversially suggested that Operation Vistula – the 1947 forced resettlement of 150,000 Ukrainians from the south-eastern provinces of post-war Poland – was conducted from ‘Ukrainian lands’ and that Ukraine would only honour Polish victims of Ukrainian WWII nationalists if Poland also honoured misdeeds against Ukrainians.
• Such Polish misdeeds were not acts of genocide, however, and the exhumation process of Polish victims in Ukraine is currently not carried out as Kuleba says.

• Russia launched its most intense UAV attack since the beginning of its full-scale invasion on 26 August, consisting of 127 missiles of various types, including 109 Shahed drones, and critically damaging energy infrastructure.

• In response, Ukraine launched its biggest-ever drone attack in the early hours of 1 September, striking two thermal power plants in Moscow and Tver, as well as an oil refinery in Moscow. Russia says it downed at least 158 drones in 15 regions.

• Zelenskyy also dismissed the country’s air force commander Mykola Oleshchuk on 30 August, a day after a Ukrainian pilot died crashing his F-16 jet.

PiS in trouble as PKW cuts funding ahead of 2025 presidential elections

CZECHIA

• Westinghouse (US) and EDF (France) have filed a complaint with the Czech anti-trust office (ÚOHS) over the selection of KHNP (South Korea) as the contractor to build two new reactors at the Dukovany nuclear power plant (NPP).
• Czech and Korean media have also reported that the tender is at risk of being delayed as KHNP does not have the right to export its technology – which it, ironically, developed together with Westinghouse.
• With a price of about €8 billion per nuclear unit, the project is poised to be the largest investment in Czech history…if it goes ahead.         

• Majority-state-owned energy utility ČEZ – which is overseeing the Dukovany tender – also announced the acquisition of a 55.21% share in GasNet, which covers about 80% of the country’s gas distribution network.
• The share sale was triggered last June by a consortium of investors led by Macquarie Asset Management, British Columbia Investment Management and Allianz Capital Partners.

• Prague hosted this year’s high-profile Globsec Forum from 30 August to 1 September, which was opened with keynote speeches by Ursula von der Leyen and Czech President Petr Pavel.
• Von der Leyen stressed that protecting Europe is primarily Europe’s duty and reiterated that her next commission will include a defence portfolio, while Pavel called for greater effectiveness in support for Ukraine.

• Czechia is set to tighten its espionage laws to close loopholes that have allowed suspected spies to escape punishment.
• Laws will now criminalise the unauthorised disclosure of non-classified information that could endanger national security, whilst also introducing a criminal offence titled ‘unauthorised activity for a foreign power.’

HUNGARY