Has Europe Prepared Enough for a Potential Return of Trump?

The NATO Summit must be a reminder for members to keep investing in security 

18 July 2024

Alina Inayeh

Marcin Król Fellow

Last week’s NATO Summit was sandwiched between rumours about Joe Biden stepping down from the Democrat ticket and the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. While the outcome of the election remains a coin flip, a potential Trump and JD Vance victory is all the more reason to accelerate investment in NATO and European security.

Donald Trump and his recently-announced running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, have now been formally nominated as the GOP ticket for the 2024 presidential elections.

The fears of those anticipating an American retreat from Europe and its affairs seem ever closer to becoming reality if Trump is successful in November’s polls. The possibility of such an outcome is uncertain as Trump’s marginal – albeit consistent – advantage in national polling does not necessarily lead to electoral success.

However, the narrative power surrounding the recent shooting and the possibility of Biden withdrawing from the race could impact these numbers in key states.

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Alina Inayeh

Marcin Król Fellow

Alina Inayeh is a Marcin Król Fellow 2024 at Visegrad Insight. She is currently a non-resident fellow with German Marshall Fund and the lead advisor for Aspen Institute Romania. She joined GMF in 2007 as the director of the Black Sea Trust for Regional Cooperation, a project dedicated to strengthening cooperation and fostering development in the Black Sea region. For the last 13 years Alina has been one of the initiators and main organizers of the annual Bucharest Forum. She is an active practitioner in the field of international development and democratization, having run the Freedom House office in Ukraine in 2004 and the NDI office in Russia in 2000-2003, with a focus on civic education and political processes.

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