First Attempt at Invasion Failed Expect Another

Democratic Security Outlook: 7-13 March

7 March 2022

While Russia is regrouping its forces and sustaining heavy losses its main objective remains Kyiv and major cities with heavy shelling and bombing continued.

EU/regional:

  • Boris Johnson meeting with V4 prime ministers on Tuesday regarding Ukraine.
  • The EU head of state will meet at Versailles on 10 to 11 March to discuss the Russian aggression and aid to Ukraine. 
  • On 8 March the European Commission will propose additional initiatives to help the Ukrainian war refugees. The Commission is working intensely to reduce European dependence on Russian gas and will propose a new initiative on 8 March to ensure European energy security, energy affordability and sustainability. 
  • Germany’s finance and foreign ministers cautioned on 6 March against banning Russian energy imports. Annalena Baerbock said such a move would be pointless since it could not be sustained long term.
  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on 6 March asked Vladimir Putin to declare a ceasefire in Ukraine, open humanitarian corridors and sign a peace agreement, his office said.

Second Round Of Invasion

Ukraine:

  • While Russia is regrouping its forces and sustaining heavy losses its main objective remains Kyiv and major cities with heavy shelling and bombing continued. 
  • Russian troops have captured the Zaporiz’ka nuclear plant at Enerhodar, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. There has been no release of radiation detected at the site. Russia has also cut off communication preventing reliable assessment of the situation by nuclear experts (link). 
  • Russians still control the Chornobyl nuclear power plant and surrounding area. They have held the personnel of the station as hostages since the station was seized on 24 February. The staff works in two shifts, they are exhausted and are running out of food and medicines.  (link)
  • Russia shelled nuclear research facilities in the Kharkiv Physics and Technology Institute. 
  • Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Mariupol, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Bucha, Borodyanka, Vasylkiv, Vorzel, Gostomel, Volnovakha, Bila Tserkva, Vinnytsia, Mykolaiv had been under severe airstrikes, including residential and administrative buildings and infrastructure. Kharkiv and Mariupol, seriously damaged, were still shelled on 5 March. Ukrainian authorities expect bombing of Odesa and new attacks on Kyiv.
  • During the week Russia deliberately blocked humanitarian corridors and evacuation of civilians in spite of agreements, including the promises to the Red Cross. On 6 March the second attempt to evacuate civilians of Mariupol failed, as Russians opened fire. Thousands of injured are still stuck in the city under almost constant shelling. In Irpin, a hardly destroyed town near Kyiv, Russians shelled the bridge used by civilians for badly needed evacuation. As of 7 March, civilians in Irpin have no water, electricity or heating. The mayor of Gostomel was shot by Russians as he distributed humanitarian aid with other volunteers.
  • 38 children had been killed by Russian attacks during 11 days of war, including an 18-month old in Mariupol. 71 were injured. In Kyiv on 6 March, Russia attacked Okhmadyt, the central children’s hospital, for the third time. Heavily injured children can not make it to the hospital, as it was on 5 March. Two died on the way on 4 March.
  • As of 6 March, more than one and a half million people have fled Ukraine. While women and children from Ukraine seek refuge abroad, more than 66,000  of Ukrainians who worked abroad came back to join the army to defend the country. In total 140,000 Ukrainian citizens came back to Ukraine since the beginning of the war.
  • Thousands of Ukrainians went to the streets to protest against Russian troops in the occupied cities of Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. In Nova Kakhovka, Russians opened fire.

Questions Over What Kind of Aid

Belarus: 

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