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Warsaw’s Friends With Defence Benefits
11 May 2026
Poland’s presidential election has set the stage for a defining runoff between reform and rupture. With KO’s Rafał Trzaskowski and PiS-backed Karol Nawrocki neck and neck, the 1 June vote will determine whether Warsaw moves forward with long-delayed reforms that would strengthen its position in Europe – or remains paralysed by institutional deadlock.
The first round of Poland’s presidential election has confirmed what many feared – a 50/50 nation torn between reform and resistance.
The vote on May 18th saw Civic Coalition (KO)-aligned Rafał Trzaskowski narrowly edge out Law and Justice (PiS)-backed Karol Nawrocki, winning 31.2% to Nawrocki’s 29.7%. But the bigger story is the fragmentation of Polish politics and the warning signs from below. The three nationalist candidates together secured over 9.9 million of the 19.6 million votes cast.
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