EU Enlargement Stands for Stability on the Continent

The EC makes a historic recommendation to grant Bosnia and Herzegovina EU candidate status. More border controls are expected in Central Europe and Slovakia is rocked by a tragic hate crime.

This week on Visegrad Insight:

• Visegrad Insight Fellow Vitaly Portnikov comments on how Central Asia’s former USSR republics are moving away from Russia as a result of failed blitzkrieg in Ukraine.
• Martin Ehl writes about how Viktor Orbán’s success on the Hungarian stage is based on identity politics and the creation of the “new Hungarian”.
• Krzysztof Izdebski analyses whether the Polish government will receive RRF without the reforms required by Brussels.
• Lukas Valasek shines a light on the organisers and profiteers of Czech far-right protests.
• Visegrad Insight will organise two exclusive roundtables at the Riga Conference 2022:
• War and Europe’s Future. Is the EU losing its strategic autonomy? At the meeting, Visegrad Insight will present the War and the Future of Europe foresight findings and will discuss reforming the EU’s strategic autonomy and transferring momentum for enlargement to facts – the two key recommendations in the report – in the context of the possible futures.
• 3SI Digital Future foresight roundtable with policy influencers from the Three Seas Initiative (3SI). At the discussion, Marcin Król Fellow Krzysztof Izdebski of the Open Spending EU Coalition and Stefan Batory Foundation will present the recommendations and key points of an upcoming foresight report developed with the 3SI Digital Civil Society Forum and supported by META.

EU/REGIONAL

• The European Commission recommends Bosnia and Herzegovina be granted EU candidate status. The EC has made the recommendation as part of its 2022 Enlargement Package.
• Despite the rusty progress of BiH towards candidacy, EC prioritises geopolitical concerns seeing Bosnia’s structural issues are continually targeted by Kremlin’s subversive activities. “Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine brings into strong relief the importance of EU enlargement”, said Josep Borrell in a press statement adding that enlargement “is a long term investment into peace, prosperity, and stability for our continent”.
• Germany turned down Putin’s offer of resuming gas flow through Nord Stream 2
• Türkiye is interested in building TurkStream with Russia. Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Russian and Turkish authorities will work together to build a gas distribution hub pointing to the Turkish region bordering Greece and Bulgaria as an ideal location.
• Politico puts Vladimir Putin on top of its inaugural POLITICOGreen28 list. “Vladimir Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has forced Europe to finally break its fossil fuel addiction,” the outlet stated.   
• The World Bank prepares to launch a trust fund to reduce carbon emissions at the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November.
• NATO defence ministers meeting. A number of NATO countries including several Central European nations plan to procure a joint air defence system.
• V4 Presidents met in Bratislava as the host of the meeting Zuzana Caputova told the media that the presidents looked at the ways their countries can help each other despite their differing views.
• The European Council meeting to be held on October 20-21 will discuss Ukraine, energy, economic issues and external relations.
• Charles Michel prepares to visit Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan following invitations from country leaders. Michel tweeted he is pleased about the prospects of Central Asian and EU cooperation. Russia’s influence in the region has dwindled following the Russian losses on the battlefield in Ukraine with China attempting to fill the power vacuum.
• OPEC’s decision to rein in oil output has driven up prices and could push the global economy into recession, the International Energy Agency said. The US criticised Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s leading country, for the decision.
• The Greek power grid ran entirely on renewable energy for five hours last week. Renewables represent 46 per cent of the power mix in Greece so far this year which is already an increase from 42 per cent for the corresponding period in 2021.  Greece has a comparable economy to that of Czechia where renewables represent over 10 per cent of the power mix.
• IMF lowers global economy growth foresight. Individual outlooks for Czechia, Hungary or Slovakia lowered, citing exposure to dropouts in Russian energy supplies. IMF also predicts Germany and Italy as the two eurozone countries to tip into recession.
• CCP Congress to conclude on 22 October in China likely reconfirming Xi Jinping and the revisionist strategy, especially towards Taiwan.
• Semiconductor manufacturing industry annihilation. A set of unprecedented tech sanctions against China designed by Biden’s administration entered into force last Friday, crippling the country’s economic potential and advanced weaponry plans. It could also have a lasting impact on China’s burgeoning AI sector as well as other advanced technologies.

Iranian-made kamikaze drones attack Kyiv

UKRAINE