Erdoğan’s Autocratic Hold On Türkiye Gives Him an Edge in the Presidential Race

Vote showed economy and rule of law issues are no match for state capture of the media and institutions

16 May 2023

Adam Jasser

Deputy Managing Editor

President Recip Tayyip Erdoğan’s failed to win outright in Türkiye’s presidential race on Sunday, but his lead over opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu underscored how much his blend of religious and nationalist identity politics, autocratic capture of institutions and the media combine to give him a decisive incumbent advantage.

Opinion polls before the vote showed Kılıçdaroğlu slightly ahead of Erdoğan in the final weeks of the campaign. In the end, Erdoğan won 49 per cent of the vote, while his rival got 45 per cent, forcing a run-off on 28 May.

Editor’s Pick: Turkish Presidential Race Heads To A Runoff

The result of the first round all but dashed hopes that Türkiye would pivot away from the disruptive and nationalistic foreign policy Erdoğan has pursued for two decades, first as prime minister and then as president.

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Adam Jasser

Deputy Managing Editor

Since 2021, Adam has co-hosted a foreign policy podcast “About the World at Onet” for Poland’s leading web portal onet.pl. He has worked as a business and policy consultant, including with the World Bank on competition, privatisation and regulatory reforms in transition economies. In 2014-16, Adam was head of the Polish competition authority. He served as Secretary of State in the Chancellery of Prime Minister Donald Tusk in 2010-14. He was Secretary of the PM’s Economic Council and oversaw the analytical and policy impact assessment department. Before joining the government, Adam was Programme Director at Warsaw-based think-tank demosEuropa – Centre for European Strategy. Earlier, he spent almost 20 years at Reuters news agency, in roles stretching from translator and head of economic reporting in Warsaw, to bureau chief in Frankfurt and regional editor for central Europe, Balkans and Turkey.

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