Rule of Law Stars and Troublemakers
26 July 2021
Hungary and Poland are more likely to close the deal on rule of law with a bad compromise. With Brexit imminent and Joe Biden coming soon into the office, Central Europe will seek better relations with Berlin. Romanian elections will likely bring continuity and strengthening of regional focus on 3SI. New regional connectivity infrastructure project initiated in the Baltics. Populists potential in the Carpathian mountain region during winter lockdown.
In December, the EU must contend with two unrelated – yet mutually exacerbating – issues: the EU Budget and Brexit. The tension is particularly pronounced in CEE which is heavily dependent on the long-term budget fueling investment (but also in some cases corruption) and the Brexit outcome eventually reshaping up a new power structure in the EU.
The prolonged budgetary process – that has been delayed by vetoes coming from Hungary and Poland – may have brought more sympathetic voices from other countries behind the scenes (i.e. Slovenia, Croatia, etc.), but patience is waning and official communication is still in support of the Rule of Law stipulation.