Ukraine Halts Half of Russian Oil Exports. Expect More Drone Strikes

Democratic and Economic Security Outlook 2026: 30 March - 5 April

30 March 2026

Oil shocks have a new dimension in CEE. Russian Baltic and Black Sea oil infrastructure has been hit, temporarily halting up to 40 per cent of its oil export capacity.

At the same time, Hungary will halt gas supplies to Ukraine in retaliation for the continued outage of the Druzhba oil pipeline. The move escalates a bitter energy dispute, just as Ukrainian drone strikes have inflicted major damage on Russian oil terminals in Ust-Luga, Primorsk and the Novorossiysk area, plus a costly new Russian military icebreaker.

The row between Ukraine and the EU’s two black sheep – Hungary and Slovakia – risks further delaying financial support to Kyiv and exposes deep fractures in European energy solidarity, especially as Europe gets more affected by the global supply shortages. Russia has also announced a seasonal ban on gasoline exports, but it comes earlier than expected and coincides with both Ukrainian attacks and supply pressures around Iran.

Barrels and new trade deals

GLOBAL/REGIONAL

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