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EU Focus on Security in Gdansk. Rutte Urges War Readiness
3 February 2025
Hungary and Poland are more likely to close the deal on rule of law with a bad compromise. With Brexit imminent and Joe Biden coming soon into the office, Central Europe will seek better relations with Berlin. Romanian elections will likely bring continuity and strengthening of regional focus on 3SI. New regional connectivity infrastructure project initiated in the Baltics. Populists potential in the Carpathian mountain region during winter lockdown.
- We believe a deal on the EU budget is still likely, but not certain due to the increased pressures from the COVID-19 recession, which is threatening the economic security of the region
- For similar reasons, we believe that a Brexit deal is possible in the coming days, which would be a welcome relief to the automotive, pharmaceutical and technology industries in CE
In December, the EU must contend with two unrelated – yet mutually exacerbating – issues: the EU Budget and Brexit. The tension is particularly pronounced in CEE which is heavily dependent on the long-term budget fueling investment (but also in some cases corruption) and the Brexit outcome eventually reshaping up a new power structure in the EU.
Eyes on EU budget veto and Brexit outcomes
The prolonged budgetary process – that has been delayed by vetoes coming from Hungary and Poland – may have brought more sympathetic voices from other countries behind the scenes (i.e. Slovenia, Croatia, etc.), but patience is waning and official communication is still in support of the Rule of Law stipulation.
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